Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 100 ‘Magny vs. Prates’

There are no two ways about it: The 100th Ultimate Fighting Championship event held at its headquarters at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas is on paper one of its bleakest. One of the greatest consolations is that the massively superior UFC 309 show waits in the wings. However, this is rough sledding, with seven competitors posting betting odds of -300 or above, so picks are slim and sparse. Join the cherrypicked UFC Vegas 100 edition of Prime Picks as we weigh a couple of heavy underdogs while biding our time in the remainder of the selections.

Ricky Turcios (+270)

The first pick of four skips the main event—largely because Carlos Prates is an untenable -850 favorite against grizzled vet Neil Magny (+550), but the prospect for the experienced man making it a trap fight is a reach—and hops down to the newly rebooked co-headliner. With Cody Garbrandt out and Miles Johns not receiving a replacement, “Pretty Ricky” takes the two spot against Bernardo Sopai. In this case, confidence is not over the moon for the man who was recently tapped out by a recent high school graduate. Instead, it is that Albania’s Sopai, who dropped his promotional debut in March in a highlight-reel knockout, should not be a -300 favorite or higher against anyone in the UFC right now.

When Sopai introduced himself to the organization eight months ago, he did so on the heels of three knockout wins and could not land the fourth. Instead, Sopai searched for it so aggressively that he burned himself out before the second round concluded. Sopai did manage to put Vinicius Oliveira on his back foot to win Round 1, but the Brazilian’s wrestling made a difference when the man known as “Lion King” gassed. This grappling-based approach is one that can be replicated by Turcios, but sometimes a strategy in that fashion works against him. Both Brady Hiestand and Kevin Natividad grounded him early and often, and Turcios’ mad scrambling ability while constantly fighting for reversals kept him afloat.

It remains to be seen how the power of Sopai will translate to the Octagon. His head kicks kept Oliviera honest while he maintained the energy reserves to throw them, but he proved to be overwhelmed and eventually ate a dazzling knee that would have flattened a bull moose. Sopai does deserve credit for going all-out for two rounds while coming in on short notice, as Oliveira was initially slated to face Yanis Ghemmouri that night. A full camp could expand what Sopai has to offer, or at least keep him in the kind of shape where 15 minutes is not an unscalable mountain. As long as Turcios does not leave his chin on the gunnery range for too long, with his awkward, unpolished and borderline frantic striking, he can move into range and make this a horizontal affair that can play out in his favor. At this level of plus money, Turcios is at least worth a flier.

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (+385)

Another Meerschaert fight, another Prime Pick suggesting he will not only win but finish his opponent. The math adds up for “GM3” plays of this fashion. The Wisconsin native tends to serve as an underdog in most of his UFC outings, thanks to defensive liabilities and his susceptibility to getting blitzed early. If he gets the fight to his world, suddenly it is a new ballgame, and he has a penchant for outlasting his foes to pull off comeback after comeback. On 15 occasions, Meerschaert has clocked in at plus money, and he has won seven of those instances, with finishes in each. Winning about half of those at big plus money, upwards of beyond +500, means that there is a return on investment for him.

Unfortunately for Meerschaert, he will battle against a hulking grappler with a high submission rate who has never been tapped. Reiner de Ridder joining up in the post-USADA climate means that the 34-year-old will be shredded as can be and likely quite vascular. It takes a lot of energy to power those muscles, and every minute that “GM3” stays in the fight should grow some confidence in his upset play; Meerschaert’s moneyline is +250, but with a 100% stoppage rate in the Octagon, it should be part-and-parcel with selecting him. Punch a black belt in the face and he becomes a brown belt, the wisdom goes, and fatigue makes cowards of us all. Meerschaert will be live underdog for as long as the bout is still going, and his “live by the sword, die by the sword” tactic means he will present the utmost danger and could be the perfect trap fight for the Dutchman.

Mansur Abdul-Malik-Dusko Todorovic Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-155)

It’s all gas, no brakes for this middleweight encounter, one where a knockout could come at any moment. Luckily for bettors, the fight concluding before 7:30 is conducive for most of their respective careers. The unbeaten debutant Abdul-Malik has once passed that mark as a pro, while Todorovic has seen four of his seven UFC bouts conclude in the first round. Abdul-Malik comes out like he is shot out of a cannon, lobbing combinations that mix in looping punches and surprisingly quick head kicks. Todorovic is no stranger to a brawl either, and he is more than willing to trade leather for as long as he is on his feet.

The slugfests for Todorovic have not generally played out in his favor, as his UFC run is below .500 at this stage. Punahele Soriano, Chidi Njokuani and Christian Leroy Duncan all put him away quickly, and his going the distance with Gregory Rodrigues is a bit of an anomalous result. On the upside, the nickname of “Thunder” is merited for Todorovic, who fires off booming shots that can shut the lights out in a hurry. While he has not yet pulled off a clean knockout, his level of power is of the stunning variety, where he can catch foes unaware, hurt them and finish the job with a frenzied salvo of strikes. Both of these men will stand in the pocket and bang, which more than likely presents a result where one will wind up face down before too long.

DOUBLE PLAY (-113)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz-Denise Gomes Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-275)

Melissa Mullins-Klaudia Sygula Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)

Let’s get down to brass tacks: The finish rate among women in the Octagon is in the tank this year. Whether due to the new gloves, an improved overall level of conditioning and recovery or some other phenomenon, ladies are procuring stoppages at far lower rates than ever. A bit over 25% of all UFC bouts among female fighters have ended inside the distance in 2024. About 87% of those matches have reached the midpoint of Round 2, while the over of two and a half rounds has been hit in 77% of women’s fights. Dating back to 2019, Kowalkiewicz has fought to at least 12:30 in seven of her last nine appearances, while Gomes’ six outings on the major stage have resulted in four decisions. This will serve as the anchor to this two-piece parlay.

A pair of 6-1 bantamweights, Mullins and Sygula sport matching finish rates of 50%. Their three respective decision wins for each woman account for the total number of fights where they have hit the over, as well. Both ladies will need to display exactly what skills they have at the UFC level in this contest, because so far, all Mullins has shown is that she can outwrestle a woman who called herself “Russian Ronda.” Sygula will be the larger woman of the two while also serving about eight years the younger. Recently a featherweight, Sygula can stave off the wrestling with sheer horsepower, and it could turn into a grind. If it does, check the box for the over and cash the bet after Kowalkiewicz-Gomes goes long.