Preview: UFC 296 ‘Edwards vs. Covington’

Lightweights

Paddy Pimblett (20-3, 4-0 UFC) vs. Tony Ferguson (25-9, 15-7 UFC)

ODDS: Pimblett (-298), Ferguson (+240)

This is a cynical bit of matchmaking but could still wind up as an interesting affair. Pimblett certainly has some star power that definitely outweighs his talent as a fighter, but the Scouser is far from a joke inside the cage. Pimblett was talked about as a potential UFC signee going back to the promotion’s 2018 trip to Liverpool, England, but “The Baddy” took a few more years to make it to the Octagon. A full-time move up to lightweight in the time since allowed Pimblett to fill out and become a much stronger athlete, allowing his game to translate to the UFC level. Pimblett is overly aggressive and defensively wide-open on the feet but uses that as a path to a relentless wrestling and grappling game that has proven capable of overwhelming opponent after opponent. After finishing his first three UFC foes, Pimblett’s most recent effort came with a bit of controversy, as his split decision win over Jared Gordon ran opposite to the consensus. Gordon produced the most effective offense of the fight, and while he took his foot off the gas and allowed Pimblett to assert a lot of control, a path to giving the Englishman two rounds should have proven rather difficult. With that said, a win is a win, and after missing the past year due to injury, Pimblett returns against a former title contender in Ferguson.

Ferguson is now past the three and a half-year point of what has been a disheartening late-career skid. “El Cucuy” racked up 12 straight wins to assert himself as one of the best fighters in the world, but a loss to Justin Gaethje kicked off what has become a six-fight losing streak. At his best, Ferguson’s elite athleticism allowed him to fight behind an inefficient but highly potent game. However, just a bit of slippage has seemingly made the entire thing fall apart since that loss to Gaethje, which saw Ferguson’s toughness keep him around long enough to suffer an extended beating. After some shockingly flat performances that saw him get outwrestled by Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush, Ferguson has regrouped enough to show some flashes of his old self but not consistently enough to walk away with a win. Losses to Michael Chandler, Nate Diaz and Bobby Green have all seen Ferguson start decently and have some effective moments, only to fade badly with each subsequent round and suffer a finish. Since Ferguson has not knocked anyone out cleanly since 2014, it would be a surprise if he managed to tag Pimblett for a quick finish, so this looks like another fight where things might start off well only to get worse later on, particularly against a relentless grappler and wrestler. The pick is Pimblett via third-round submission.

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Edwards vs. Covington
Pantoja vs. Royval
Rakhmonov vs. Thompson
Pimblett vs. Ferguson
The Prelims