Preview: UFC 186 ‘Johnson vs. Horiguchi’

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Fabio Maldonado (22-7, 5-4 UFC) vs. Quinton Jackson (35-11, 7-5 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Following a legal odyssey that saw him pulled from the card following an injunction from Bellator MMA and then a miracle reversal of that injunction, Jackson returns to the UFC against hard-nosed brawler Maldonado. “Rampage” finished his last run in the UFC on a three-fight losing streak against elite competition but rang off three straight victories in Bellator, the last a controversial decision over Muhammed Lawal. Maldonado has won four of his last five against middling opposition.

Maldonado is a straightforward sprawl-and-brawler whose game is defined by his quick pace and granite chin. A former professional boxer, Maldonado works behind a strong jab, and once he eventually finds his rhythm -- it usually takes at least a round to do so -- he strings together long, relentless combinations that punish his opponent’s body and head. He is incredibly hittable but shakes off even the most powerful shots in favor of simply standing in the pocket and dropping his own bombs. That is essentially the extent of Maldonado’s offensive game. He is not a good wrestler, either offensively or defensively, but the simple sight of him shooting for a takedown is often enough to surprise his opponent. On the mat, Maldonado likes to work escapes and sweeps from half guard and the deep half, and if he manages to get to top position, he can do real damage.

Jackson has been several markedly different fighters during his 16 years of MMA competition, but he has comfortably settled into a power-punching sprawl-and-brawl mode in the latter part of his career. He lacks the top-notch athleticism of his younger years but still boasts solid hand speed, decent footwork and brutal power in his punches. He is almost exclusively a boxer, with above-average head movement, a crisp if underused jab and a vicious left hook. Takedown defense is a strong suit, and he can hit the occasional takedown of his own when the mood strikes, not that it often does. He still does excellent work from top position, but again, that is a fairly rare occurrence. As one expects from an aged fighter, offensive output is a problem, as Jackson will go long stretches without throwing much of anything. “Rampage” is not shot, but he is not the fighter he once was.

THE PICK: This looks like a competitive fight. I expect Jackson to handily win the first round and perhaps hurt the hittable Maldonado, but if he expends too much energy looking for the finish -- especially given his interrupted training camp -- the durable Brazilian could easily stage a comeback in the second and third frames. Jackson could use his wrestling to slow Maldonado and effectively shorten the fight, but that seems somewhat unlikely. Still, even the past-prime version of Jackson has to be considered the favorite here. The pick is Rampage by close 29-28 decision.

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