Preview: UFC Vegas 100 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Denise Gomes (9-3, 3-2 UFC) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8, 9-8 UFC)

ODDS: Gomes (-420), Kowalkiewicz (+335)

Kowalkiewicz is now coming off a loss for the first time in a while, but her career resurgence has been a fun subplot of the strawweight division. Kowalkiewicz’s game always came together as more than the sum of its parts. She didn’t stand out as a top-tier athlete and her technique could be a bit awkward, but her dogged approach and some underrated physical strength quickly established her among the strawweight elite, earning a title shot against Polish countrywoman Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2016. After suffering the first knockout loss of her career to Jessica Andrade in 2018, Kowalkiewicz looked done as a fighter for the better part of four years. Her confidence was clearly diminished and nothing in her game clicked as a result, so she spiraled to five straight defeats, with a quick armbar loss to Jessica Penne in 2021 suggesting that Kowalkiewicz was close to the end. Instead, Kowalkiewicz upended her life and training situation, took a year off and wound up recapturing some old magic. Her success still pivoted as much on her doggedness as ever, but she was able to gut her way to four straight wins against the lower stretches of the UFC roster. That momentum came to a halt against Iasmin Lucindo, which did raise some of those old concerns. Kowalkiewicz didn’t crumble to the level she did at her worst, but Lucindo’s physicality and punching power clearly put some doubts into her mind, which led to a clear win. That result also looks better with some of Lucindo’s subsequent success, so the hope is that the former title challenger can rebound against another physical Brazilian in Gomes.

At 24 years old, Gomes is still a long-term prospect to watch, though she has been a bit hard to calibrate for the time being. Her approach is still highly dependent on her ability to physically overwhelm an opponent, but it has been a bit of a question as to exactly when that will come through given a specific matchup. Gomes struggled in her UFC debut to natural atomweight Konklak Suphisara, then rebounded with knockout wins over Bruna Brasil and Yazmin Jauregui, only to get outwrestled by Angela Hill at the end of 2023. It’s a mixed bag, though her June win over Eduarda Moura was at least a positive sign in terms of Gomes’ overall success going forward. Moura was clearly the bigger bully, but Gomes did well to stall her Brazilian countrywoman out and land enough offense to win rounds. That could certainly be the game plan here, but the lean is that Gomes can’t quite follow Lucindo’s blueprint in terms of landing enough hard offense early to take Kowalkiewicz out of the fight. It won’t be an easy fight for either woman but might be more of a grimy split decision that involves a lot of relatively even clinch work. The scrappy veteran gets the benefit of the doubt in terms of pressure and volume. The pick is Kowalkiewicz via decision.

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