Parlaying and Praying: UFC 316 ‘Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley’

In honor of beloved former colleague Jordan Breen, we take a trip down memory lane to revive his “Parlaying and Praying” series from which Prime Picks got its inspiration. The Ultimate Fighting Championship takes last year’s main event from Noche UFC and rebooks it in the Prudential Center in New Jersey. Betting lines through this fight card—with seven favorites holding betting odds above -400—are all over the map, and outright bets are slim and none, with slim on vacation.

In September, Merab Dvalishvili claimed the bantamweight crowd by silencing those gathered in The Sphere expecting Sean O'Malley to punch his lights out. While the flamboyant striker had some success in the final frame, Dvalishvili left little doubt as to who would have pocketed more rounds when the dust settled. Given that the Georgian has finished one foe in his whole UFC run, the only stoppage that could come is the sniper shot of O’Malley—“Suga” by knockout is +350, worth it if confidence in the social media darling is high. A few other fights on the main card are worth checking out but may be best when linked together. This is where we come in: our one and only suggestion for UFC 316 is a three-piece with a Quebec Maple Coca-Cola.

An Accumulation Contemplation

Merab Dvalishvili (-275)

Kayla Harrison (-750)

Kevin Holland (-290)

Total Odds: +108

For all that O’Malley has said ahead of this match—and in fairness to him, he has largely stuck to his guns when it comes to goofing around on social media—he has promised that his primary training regimen was to prepare him for grappling. On the one hand, it does not make sense if a striker like O’Malley trains for five months or five years to get ready for the wrestling that the champ will throw at him. On the other, defense is a far different skill to boost than offense, on the whole. Leon Edwards battled Kamaru Usman, figuring him out with a head kick and shoring up his deficiencies to prevail in the rematch in a different manner. Weili Zhang certainly holds a fraction of the wrestling experience that Tatiana Suarez holds, but the titleholder was able to prepare a strategy and hone her skills enough to completely nullify the so-called heir apparent at 115 pounds.

When Edwards had his chin checked by Nate Diaz after four rounds of Edwards firmly in the driver seat, it was Diaz’ success that proved to be the biggest takeaway. Should they have rematched, that would have undoubtedly been the top story going into it. This is similar in nature to the fifth frame of Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley, so some may read into O’Malley finally figuring out the puzzle of “The Machine.” Given that of the two, it is the man from Georgia who fought since their first encounter, it stands to reason that Dvalishvili has developed further after two full training camps. It was not simply his takedowns that deflated the curly-haired wunderkind, as they opened up for some success on the feet. Think to when Khabib Nurmagomedov, a wrestler through and through, put Conor McGregor on his seat in the second round courtesy of a fierce right hand. It could look a lot like the first match, much to the chagrin of some fans, but there is little to indicate that O’Malley has turned things around other than that he may not have colorful hair on Saturday.

It might come as a shock to some that Julianna Pena is the one on the marquee pushing hardest to sell this event. The rematch discussed above has made many fans indifferent while others exasperated to the lack of ideas coming out of the UFC HQ these days. Harrison is far from a household name, and this could be a fight card appreciated by the hardcores and slept on by the casuals. This would continue the troubling pattern the UFC has run into the last year and so, in that PPV buys are reportedly so low that most points-based bonuses for athletes are not triggered. Whether one person or one hundred million tune in on Saturday, all that matters is that Kayla Harrison snatches the crown in which many have suggested is hers for the taking. Pena, with her recent history surprising those favored heavily above her, is still a live underdog. However, when matching her skills against the two-time Olympic gold medalist, the judoka very well may put on a “there’s levels to this game” performance. At these odds, she should more than likely get the finish, which could be picked at -150 if wanting a single option.

Five years ago, Vicente Luque would have not only been favored against Holland, but he would have probably done so by beating Holland at his own game. Now, however, Luque’s approach that runs on durability and recoverability has taken a number of hits, even though he is just 33 years of age. All it seems to take these days is a firm bop on the noggin, and Luque goes flying. For all of Holland’s Swiss cheese-like holes in his skillset, he can put some fire the long punches of his. Six inches of reach for “Trailblazer” will feel like an extra limb smacking him in the face again and again. Even if Luque manages to implement some grappling, the Texan should have enough in his scramble toolkit to survive long enough for things to get back going on the feet. To send a message, Holland may even try to out-brabo the brabo choke practitioner, especially if he rings Luque’s bell during an exchange. Put these three names together for even money, close your eyes and pray until Bruce Buffer reads the final verdict at night’s end.