Preview: UFC on ABC 5 Prelims

Flyweights

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8, 1-5 UFC) vs. Joshua Van (7-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Zhumagulov (-195), Van (+165)

Maybe the fourth time is the charm for Zhumagulov’s UFC comeback. Zhumagulov was a highly successful fighter at the regional level prior to signing with the UFC in 2020, though there were some signs that Kazakhstan’s “Zhako” could struggle with the move up in competition. Zhumagulov had developed a style built for the five-round fights he was having as a regional champion, staying patient early so that he could take over a fight by the championship rounds. It quickly became apparent that Zhumagulov would need to pick up the pace to succeed in three-rounders; and to his credit, he broke a lot of his old habits over the last few years. However, Zhumagulov never quite reaped the gains from that progress, as both of his fights in 2022 were split decision losses that seemingly everyone but the judges scored in his favor. It was actually understandable when Zhumagulov subsequently retired out of frustration, but like most mixed martial artists, he did not stay retired for long and was booked for a fight just a few months later. Still, getting Zhumagulov in the cage has been a comedy of errors, as three opponents have dropped out on various dates, with Van the latest to step in. The bad news for Zhumagulov is that Van was one of the best prospects available for the spot, though the 21-year-old Texan does have his flaws. Van still appears to be at the stage of his career where defense is optional, but that has not done much to stop him thus far. The level of aggression he brings to his fights is impressive, but that may be outdone by the level of finishing ability that Van brings to the table, as he is an opportunistic grappler with some brutal knockout power. Zhumagulov could neutralize Van by turning this into an absolute grind, but the bet is that the promotional newcomer finds enough moments to press the action that he makes something huge happen. The pick is Van via second-round knockout.

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