Preview: UFC 299 ‘O’Malley vs. Vera 2’

Welterweights

#11 WW | Jack Della Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC) vs. #4 WW | Gilbert Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC)

ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Like a few fighters on this card, Della Maddalena looks to make the leap from prospect to contender in the toughest fight of his career. The Australian looked sharp in earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021, but it was unclear at first whether he would prove to be an actual potential contender or just a reliable action fighter. Della Maddalena certainly had some impressive offensive chops, but his hard-nosed approach left a lot of openings for him to eat some big shots in return. However, it is hard to think of how Della Maddalena could have looked more impressive in his first four UFC fights, as he marched through Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, Danny Roberts and Randy Brown for a string of first-round knockouts. Sean Brady was slated to be Della Maddalena’s next big test in July, but a string of late changes led to the most disappointing performance of his career. Della Maddalena’s fight wound up getting pushed back a week, and he drew UFC newcomer Bassil Hafez. It was a clear Della Maddalena win but via the ugliest manner possible, as the Australian wasted a lot of time attempting low-percentage guillotine chokes as an answer to Hafez’s wrestling. It remains unclear whether that showing was a result of the late-notice nature of the fight or a weakness in Della Maddalena’s game going forward. He snapped back into form for a victory over Kevin Holland in September, but Della Maddalena’s skills on the mat were a non-factor in that outing. All those questions figure to be answered against Burns in Della Maddalena’s toughest test to date.

Burns seems a bit stuck at the moment, clearly among the welterweight elite but without much momentum after two flat showings. A highly decorated grappler, Burns came into the UFC in 2014 as a lightweight prospect with massive hype, but for a while, it seemed like “Durinho” would never fully put things together. Burns was a solid but unspectacular wrestler, often leaving him unable to get to his submission skills, and his striking was spotty, as he would show some flashes of power among an inconsistent level of comfort. Then Burns took a late-notice fight up at welterweight in 2019—a move that seemed to unlock everything for the Brazilian. The lack of a weight cut made him a more effective bully, both in terms of physical strength and improved cardio, allowing him to apply some relentless pressure and work his way up the welterweight ranks. It took Burns a matter of months to mark himself as Kamaru Usman’s top contender, and he had the then-champion on the ropes early on before “The Nigerian Nightmare” rallied for a comeback. In the three years since, Burns has essentially been just outside of the title picture. His stock was probably raised in an all-out war against top prospect Khamzat Chimaev, which gave way to a middling 2023 run. Burns’ first fight of the year saw him run through Neil Magny as expected, but his follow-up against Jorge Masvidal was a mixed bag. It was a clear Burns win, but he had a surprising amount of trouble building any momentum against a late-career version of Masvidal that seemingly had little to offer. Yet it was enough for Burns to get the nod for a quick turnaround fight against Belal Muhammad that was supposed to crown the next welterweight contender, only the fight itself was a bit of a dud. Burns suffered a shoulder injury early and did little else but survive for the last 20 minutes of the bout. Given that Burns is 37 years old with an athleticism-heavy style and coming off a major injury, this is as much a referendum on his potential contender status as Della Maddalena’s, and it is a fun toss-up of a fight. Burns is at his worst against an opponent capable of moving him backwards, and the Australian will certainly press that issue. Assuming Burns survives that initial feeling-out process, the bet is that this turns into a grappling match at some point—an area where Della Maddalena’s decision making apparently leaves a lot to be desired. The pick is Burns via second-round submission.

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O’Malley vs. Vera
St. Denis vs. Poirier
Holland vs. Page
Della Maddalena vs. Burns
Yan vs. Song
The Prelims