Preview: UFC 299 ‘O’Malley vs. Vera 2’

Bantamweights

#4 BW | Petr Yan (16-5, 8-4 UFC) vs. #7 BW | Yadong Song (21-7-1, 10-2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Yan (-115), Song (-105)

Given that Yan’s dominance over the bantamweight division once seemed relatively assured, it is still a bit stunning to see that he has lost four of his last five fights and badly needs a win. Already well-tested on the Russian scene, “No Mercy” was expected to quickly rise to title contention and did just that, becoming bantamweight champion roughly two years after his UFC debut. Past his success, Yan also established himself as one of the most must-see fighters in the sport during that time, thanks to his blend of calculated violence. Yan would constantly pressure, feeling out his opponent early and getting his reads, allowing him to turn into a beautiful buzz saw of offense by the third round and beyond. After finding Jose Aldo’s breakout point and taking the belt in 2020, Yan was matched up for a title defense against Aljamain Sterling to start the next year. It was an interesting matchup on paper and wound up as one in practice, at least early on. Sterling decided to swamp Yan with pressure and wrestling to try and dampen the then-champion’s momentum. However, by the championship rounds, it seemed that Sterling had only slowed down the inevitable. Yan hung with him as a wrestler, and the pace of the fight only seemed to exhaust Sterling, who looked to be running out of ideas. Then Yan changed the arc of both men’s careers. Faced with a downed Sterling, Yan methodically and intentionally blasted his challenger with an illegal knee to the head, becoming the first UFC fighter to lose his title due to disqualification. It took a year for the score to get settled, during which Yan was essentially regarded as the uncrowned champ, particularly after an impressive victory over Cory Sandhagen in the interim. Once the rematch was booked, conventional wisdom was that Yan would pick up where he left off and get his belt back. Instead, Sterling fought with a sharper game plan, while Yan looked overaggressive. This time, Sterling’s wrestling worked to much greater effect, salting away enough rounds and frustrating Yan enough to retain his title. Yan figured to be back in the championship picture in short order, but instead, he has had trouble rediscovering his groove. Sean O’Malley’s power and ability to dictate range was enough to swipe a decision in a nip-tuck fight, and the relentless wrestling attack of Merab Dvalishvili once again prevented Yan from gaining much momentum. Yan is now firmly outside of the title picture for the first time in years, which makes this a crucial fight against a top young talent in Song.

Song has the type of elite physical ability that seems guaranteed to make him a title contender at some point. It is just a matter of when things finally fully click for the Chinese prospect. Song was a bit lost in the shuffle ahead of his UFC debut, as he was part of a glut of Chinese talent signed ahead of a Shanghai card in 2017, but a brutal knockout of Bharat Kandare announced the then-19-year-old as someone to watch. Song was then featured on a few of the UFC’s Asian cards for the next year and change, where he further established himself as a power puncher. However, his stateside debut against Alejandro Perez served as his true breakout. Faced with an effective veteran with a knack for neutralizing his opponents, Song quickly scored one of the most brutal knockouts of 2019. With his subsequent steps up in competition, Song’s strengths and weaknesses have clearly been on display. He can go toe-to-toe with anyone in a straightforward striking match—his 2020 decision victory over Marlon Vera has aged particularly well—but he is quite prone to getting outmaneuvered, even while consistently remaining dangerous. Cody Stamann was able to outwrestle Song enough to earn a draw on the scorecards, while Sandhagen and Kyler Phillips each found success by staying fast and out-quicking Song’s relatively planted and powerful style. That does seem to require an elite level of athleticism to pull off against Song, at least to a winning degree. Ricky Simon and Chris Gutierrez had some of those ideas, and while they were each able to frustrate Song at times, they still suffered enough attritional damage in the process that Simon got knocked out and Gutierrez imploded by the fifth round. Song’s approach is straightforward enough that he figures to take his lumps against the bantamweight elite, but his success does feel inevitable. He is improving around the edges every few fights and has the elite athleticism to have an extended prime while he figures things out. This does make for an interesting pairing since Yan’s own approach figures to have him in close range against such a dangerous power puncher, but the bet is that the Russian’s diversity of offense allows him to stay ahead in a tough fight; and if all else fails, the former champion has his wrestling in his back pocket. The pick is Yan via decision.

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O’Malley vs. Vera
St. Denis vs. Poirier
Holland vs. Page
Della Maddalena vs. Burns
Yan vs. Song
The Prelims