Opinion: No Bad Options

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Now that Ilia Topuria no longer holds the Ultimate Fighting Championship featherweight title, it was expected we’d get clarity on his situation. Will he challenge Islam Makhachev for the lightweight crown or will he have to take a non-title fight in his new weight class first? If you take his word for it, he’s fighting for the lightweight title next. If you take the word of all-time great Khabib Nurmagomedov, he’s taking at least one non-title fight before getting his opportunity. Given that both men tend to speak about as honestly as anyone in this business, we’re at a bit of an impasse. What’s going to happen?

Topuria may have given a big clue through a post on X, where he stated “the camp has begun.” Given that he said he wasn’t going to be taking a non-title fight, many are interpreting those words as proof he has been booked opposite Makhachev for UFC 317. Granted, nothing has been confirmed and Makhachev’s camp has said nothing, so it’s all hearsay at this point, but Topuria isn’t one to come up empty-handed with his talk. It’s plausible he has been talked into a sweetheart deal for a different fight, but that doesn’t appear to be Topuria’s style.

As much as I respect Nurmagomedov and believe he has sway, I don’t think his pull is as strong as it was when he was an active fighter. He declared Arman Tsarukyan to be more deserving and that Topuria needed to win a fight in his new division before being granted a title shot. His reasoning is sound. Makhachev already turned away a fighter from the featherweight division with a single UFC win at 155 pounds—twice. Alexander Volkanovski also had four featherweight title defenses under his belt compared to just one for Topuria. Nurmagomedov makes a good argument, but the UFC is a business first and a sport second. Those who run the company want to make money, so Nurmagomedov’s reasoning may not matter.

If we’re going off who has more marketability, Topuria is the easy choice. He has a history of violent finishes—the last two coming against Volkanovski and Max Holloway—and maintains an undefeated record, all while being the primary player in opening up the Spanish market. Plus, he has proven superior to Tsarukyan in capturing the attention of the MMA world. Tsarukyan has upped his aesthetics, securing four finishes in his last six wins after his first three UFC wins went to decision, but that isn’t enough to catch Topuria in terms of marketability. Tsarukyan has made a successful effort to raise his profile, but he’s still lacking the it factor Topuria carries with him.

Of course, who it should be from a business perspective is different from who is more deserving. That’s something that’s far more debatable. Some would argue an undefeated former featherweight champion who relinquished his belt so he could move up in weight is already deserving enough. However, in Tsarukyan’s case, he had already earned a shot at the title and was less than 48 hours away from fighting Makhachev earlier this year before a late injury forced him out. Despite Tsarukyan’s having earned the shot, UFC CEO Dana White has declared he needs to work his way back, likely due to the questionable nature of his injury.

Tsarukyan didn’t have a freak event that took him out, such as slipping on pipes or a bad weight cut. He had a back injury that seemed to come out of nowhere. I don’t blame him for not being vocal about it during the week leading into the event—provided he had been dealing with it—but his public workouts also gave zero indication he was suffering any ill effects with his back. Was he being reckless with a pre-existing injury? Did he get cold feet, realizing the injury would compromise him too much to give him a realistic chance of winning? I don’t know, and I get the feeling the UFC feels like he might not be trustworthy of being put in such a position again.

Aside from that, Tsarukyan is coming off a win over former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira, and if it weren’t for a highly controversial decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot—15 of the 22 documented media scores favored Tsarukyan—he would be on a 10-fight winning streak. Regardless, it isn’t like having won nine of his last 10 isn’t impressive. All those victories have come in a division in which he’s vying for a title shot, something to which Topuria can’t lay claim.

Which way should the UFC go? I’m of the opinion Tsarukyan had previously earned the shot and hasn’t done anything that we can confirm to lose it. Do I worry about his ability to be trusted? Not really. Tsarukyan knows if he ends up pulling out a second time, there’s no doubt the UFC won’t trust him again, whereas Topuria is likely to have a bit more wiggle room. Plus, while neither Tsarukyan nor Topuria are old—they’re both 28—the Russian has more wear on his body in terms of fight time. The UFC should do everything in its power to ensure contenders fighting the best while they’re at their best. While this is conjecture on my part, I believe Tsarukyan is closer to his peak than Topuria.

As for Topuria, I’d like to see him fight a name near the top of the division—Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Paddy Pimblett come to mind—but if he ends up waiting until Tsarukyan and Makhachev take care of business, that would make sense, too. The UFC could sweeten the pot for him by offering him champion’s pay to do so. It isn’t like he lost the belt to another fighter. Why not give him a bump to be a good soldier?

With that said, there’s no bad option here. Had Tsarukyan not pulled out earlier this year and lost to Makhachev, there wouldn’t be a clear-cut No. 1 contender, in which case I’d be happy to see Topuria get the immediate shot. MMA fans are a passionate bunch and tend to be boisterous in their opinions. Given that this is one of those dilemmas where there doesn’t appear to be a right or wrong answer, I say let the people duke it out. Regardless of who faces Makhachev next, I know I’ll be digging in to enjoy whatever action comes of it.