Preview: UFC 193 ‘Rousey vs. Holm’

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Lightweights

Jake Matthews (8-1) vs Akbarh Arreola (23-9-1): Matthews is a natural athlete. Technically, the 21-year-old “Celtic Kid” has plenty of room for improvement. His striking is more instinctive than polished, but the areas in which Matthews has glaring weaknesses -- distance management and timing -- should improve with experience. His commitment to combination punching and crushing low kicks will serve him well in the meantime. Matthews’ grappling is potent in all areas, with strong clinch-based takedowns that lead to cunningly improvised submission attempts. Arreola may prove a difficult test for Matthews on the feet, with a strangely stiff but undeniably effective striking arsenal highlighted by thudding kicks. Elsewhere, however, Arreola will likely struggle to compete. Arreola spends a lot of time fighting off of his back, and though he has a dangerous armbar-triangle series from that position, his inability to consistently fight off takedowns is a major drawback against Matthews. This could be an incredibly close fight, but Matthews’ ability to push the pace and control the whereabouts of the fight gives him a slight advantage. He wins by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Kyle Noke (21-7-1) vs Peter Sobotta (15-4-1): Noke has been a professional mixed martial artist for 13 years, but in all that time, he has struggled to compose a three-dimensional MMA game. A striker first and foremost, Noke is a diverse and effective kicker but not a powerful one. His boxing is limited at best, especially in terms of defense. Noke has often been too content to play guard for his own good, though a recent tendency toward cage walking suggests his loss to Patrick Cote in April 2014 may have taught him a valuable lesson. Sobotta’s career is two years shorter than Noke’s, but his development has been far more consistent. He seems to possess an edge in just about every phase. On the feet, he is more powerful and more active, with a crisp southpaw jab to supplement his kicks. As a grappler, he is more aggressive, and Sobotta has quick reactive takedowns to change the location of the fight -- an ability that Noke has always seemed to lack. The pick is Sobotta by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Anthony Perosh (15-9) vs Gian Villante (13-6): Perosh is a middle-aged veteran who struggles to hang with most in the division but continues to surprise unwary journeymen with his potent top game and deceptively heavy hands. Villante, on the other hand, is a young -- by light heavyweight standards -- prospect with some real talent who just cannot seem to get in gear. Stiff boxing and vicious kicks make Villante a threat, but his utter lack of head movement and defensive awareness mitigates his consistency. A tendency to brawl does not help, either. Perosh is exactly the kind of clever, experienced fighter to whom Villante loses, but at 43 years old, “The Hippo’s” career-long vulnerability to first round knockouts is not likely to improve any time soon. If Villante fails to put him away early, then a Perosh decision or submission is very possible, but the Long Islander has more than enough pop to make it a short night. Villante by knockout in the first round is the pick.

Flyweights

Richie Vaculik (10-3) vs Danny Martinez (17-7): Two workmanlike action fighters meet in this preliminary bout. Vaculik is a striker with a knack for up-down combinations and clinch entries. Though susceptible to takedowns while coming forward, Vaculik scrambles well and shoots counter takedowns to wind up on top. Martinez is more than willing to brawl, and though his hands are relatively powerless, he throws high volume. As a mostly one-handed puncher, however, he struggles to keep most opponents guessing after the opening round. If Martinez is smart, he will look to use his explosive takedowns to keep Vaculik off-balance and uncomfortable all night. Vaculik’s more accurate, diverse striking and sneaky grappling skills should be enough for him to win a unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Daniel Kelly (9-1) vs Steve Montgomery (8-3): Montgomery and Kelly are both extremely hittable. The difference is that Montgomery has a polished outside kicking game and a dangerous Thai clinch, while Kelly is an awkward but powerful mid-range puncher. Kelly’s background is in judo, and his strength in the clinch is impressive, but he has serious difficulty transitioning from one phase to another. Montgomery’s solid clinch wrestling should help him keep things on the feet, where his wider array of weapons gives him the edge. The pick is Montgomery by TKO in round three.

Welterweights

Richard Walsh (8-3) vs Steve Kennedy (22-7): Walsh is extremely aggressive in nearly everything he does, whether he is shooting a takedown, throwing a combination or throwing knees in the clinch. Walsh is probably weakest at long range, but Kennedy does not have the tools to keep him there. Kennedy is uncomfortable on the feet, often pulling his head straight back, lifting up his chin and flinching when an opponent charges after him. Against Walsh, that is nearly a guarantee of defeat. Walsh will have to be cautious about jumping into Kennedy’s guard, but other than that, “Filthy Rich” has every advantage. He wins by TKO in round two.

Flyweights

Ben Nguyen (13-5) vs Ryan Benoit (8-3): Both Benoit and Nguyen have the advantage of natural power, but it seems more of a crutch for Benoit than it does for Nguyen, whose defensive awareness allows him to pour on volume without taking too many clean shots. Benoit has established himself as a man who takes beatings even better than he delivers them, and that is not necessarily a good thing. Not only is Nguyen a more fluid striker, but he knows how to put an opponent on his back if need be. Once on the ground, Nguyen uses old-school Brazilian jiu-jitsu, passing guard and using strikes to set up opportunities for the rear-naked choke. Benoit’s grappling seems more explosive than technical, so while both men have shown a tendency to gas in the past, Nguyen’s fundamentals should back him up even after his tank runs dry. The pick is Nguyen by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

James Moontasri (8-3) vs Anton Zafir (7-1): Zafir makes up in aggression what he lacks in technical skill, while Moontasri makes up in athleticism what he lacks in process. Moontasri’s biggest flaw throughout his UFC career has been a fascination with “cool” rather than “practical.” The 27 year-old’s idea of a setup is to throw a flying knee followed by a Superman punch, rather than a simple jab-cross. His eccentric approach should be enough to handle Zafir, however, who simply has not faced tough enough competition to prepare him for the big show. The pick is Moontasri by unanimous decision.

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