Preview: UFC 193 ‘Rousey vs. Holm’

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Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: There are a lot of wide lines on this card, so value is hard to come by. Robert Whittaker as a slight underdog is very tempting, but Uriah Hall is a dangerous man to bet against. For my money, Peter Sobotta at +161 is about the safest line on the entire lineup. Sobotta is a much, much better fighter than the one who washed out of the UFC years ago, while Kyle Noke is more or less the same man he has always been. Since six of Sobotta’s last seven wins have come via rear-naked choke, you might find some value in the +200 line on him winning inside the distance, but I would say the straight odds are the best bet.

LIVE DOG: Anthony Perosh. This pick has as much to do with Perosh’s opponent as it does “The Hippo” himself. Gian Villante just cannot be trusted. He has some very real skills, and Perosh seems a prime candidate for a first round knockout -- it would be the fifth of his career. On the other hand, Villante loses fights he should not lose. It does not seem likely that Perosh will submit him, but Villante’s poor stamina might leave him susceptible to several rounds of pain under “The Hippo’s” bulk. With Perosh as high as +315, the underdog bet is quite tempting.

SURE THING: There are two obvious choices for this category sitting right at the top of the card, but I can only pick one. I do think there bizarre alternate universe exists in which Holly Holm fights the most perfectly dull fight of her career and takes a decision against Ronda Rousey. However, I just do not see how Valerie Letourneau could possibly hope to outstrike or outwrestle Joanna Jedrzejczyk, so the strawweight champion is my pick. Of course, neither of the championship bouts is worth betting on with such wide odds.

CAN’T MISS: Jedrzejczyk vs. Letourneau. I know I just got done telling you how the bout could not possibly be competitive, but Letourneau is tough enough to take a few rounds of Jedrzejczyk’s striking while putting up spirited resistance, and “Joanna Champion” is a can’t miss talent no matter who she is fighting. Toss in the adorable Georges St. Pierre-with-an-attitude nature of her post-fight interviews and you are all but guaranteed a fun time.

SMOKE BREAK: Daniel Kelly vs. Steve Montgomery. I did predict a knockout in this fight, but even the strong chance of eye-catching violence does not make this one an easy sell. Kelly is a raw mixed martial artist at best, and his fight with Patrick Walsh may have been the worst 15 minutes of kickboxing I have ever seen. Worse, Montgomery is pretty good at stopping takedowns and navigating the cage, so we are likely to see at least one round of Kelly awkwardly swinging at Montgomery while Montgomery, always a slow starter, figures out what to do about it. I think the knockout will come, but it will not be worth it. If you are smart, you will time your call for carryout so that the food is ready to be picked up right when this bout begins.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.