Preview: UFC 193 ‘Rousey vs. Holm’

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Heavyweights

Stefan Struve (26-7) vs Jared Rosholt (13-2)

THE MATCHUP: Struve and Rosholt have had up-and-down MMA journeys. Despite being one of the youngest men in the division, Struve’s run has actually been much longer. In his last fight against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the giant Struve finally seemed to have learned to use his length after a decade of vulnerability. This change was due in no small part, I suspect, to the fact that he has recently begun training more frequently with Henri Hooft and the Blackzilians, rather than with longtime trainer “Dirty” Bob Schrijber, who never seemed capable of refining Struve’s striking technique past a certain point. Struve did not walk through Nogueira -- few fighters ever have -- but he made some notable improvements, extending his guard rather than shelling up and inviting an attack; sticking and moving rather than simply jabbing without purpose; and using his long, left front kick as a punishing distance management tactic.

Rosholt, like most Struve opponents, will be at a significant height and reach disadvantage, but the stocky NCAA All-American wrestler is deceptively quick, and it stands to reason that he will manage to close the distance at least a few times. He is also a powerful striker in his own right, though he has a tendency to brawl wildly even when he has the upper hand. In close, Rosholt throws a mean uppercut. At range, however, he is nearly as hittable as Struve himself.

Rosholt’s takedowns will obviously be a key factor in this fight, but he may struggle to implement them effectively. Struve’s gargantuan frame leaves him susceptible to certain types of takedowns, but Rosholt’s specialty is his headlock game, coupled with one of the most brutal snap-downs ever seen in the Octagon. If he does wrap up Struve’s neck, the Dutchman will be in trouble, but it is hard to envision Rosholt yanking down on a head ten inches higher than his own. Struve also has one of the best guards in the UFC’s heavyweight division, which makes him a threat even if he is put on his back.

THE ODDS: Struve (-131), Rosholt (+111)

THE PICK: Rosholt will almost certainly tie up Struve early in the fight -- if a decrepit “Minotauro” could do it, I do not doubt that a honed clinch specialist like Rosholt can, too. Rosholt is not likely to snap Struve down to the ground, and his usual alternative, the high-crotch, is very difficult to work on a man the Dutchman’s size. Rosholt’s chin has proven to be eminently crackable, and if Struve can land the same right hands that had Nogueira wobbling around the Octagon in August, the “Big Show” is in trouble. The pick is Struve by TKO in round two.

Last Fights » The Prelims