Preview: UFC 189 ‘Mendes vs. McGregor’

---

BANTAMWEIGHTS

Brad Pickett (24-10, 4-5 UFC) vs. Thomas Almeida (18-0, 2-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Blue-chip prospect meets grizzled veteran, as Brazil’s Almeida draws England’s Pickett in a crackling matchup to open the main card. Almeida is undefeated and, aside from his UFC debut against the durable Tim Gorman, has finished all of his victories. Pickett has been a top bantamweight and flyweight for half a decade, but, at 36, seems to be nearing the end of his prime.

Almeida is a slick, technical, high-output striker with great finishing instincts. He specializes in working his way into the pocket behind a hard jab and left low kick, slipping or rolling under his opponent’s punches and then coming back with hard counter combinations of two to five punches. The liver punch is his go-to strike, and he mixes in standing elbows along with uppercuts and the occasional jumping knee to dissuade opponents from trying to duck under for takedowns. The clinch is another strong suit, as Almeida displays strong control and a nice arsenal of knees and elbows. His defensive wrestling skills have thus far proven to be competent if not outstanding, with a nice sprawl and solid limp-leg, and he excels at hipping out and getting back to his feet if his opponent succeeds in getting him down. Almeida’s best asset, however, is his unbelievable pace. Practically everything he throws is in combination, and he routinely fires off more than 20 strikes in a minute, though that pace does guarantee that he will eat a few shots over the course of the fight despite above-average head movement and defensive skills.

There is nothing the veteran Pickett does not know how to do at this point in his career. He is a solid boxer with a nice straight right-left hook combination that packs some power and a crisp jab, though he rarely moves his head and tends to rely too much on his durability. Wrestling has always been a strong suit of his game, as the longtime American Top Team product shoots a beautiful double with great timing, chains it nicely with singles and knee taps and does an excellent job of using his strikes to disguise his shots. From top position, Pickett really shines. He is a technical ground striker who mixes up his punches to the head and body in combination, generates tremendous force on elbows inside the guard and uses the threat of those shots to open up his passes. Scrambling is a specialty, and he excels at finding the back or sneaking in punches and knees in transition.

BETTING ODDS: Almeida (-1000), Pickett (+650)

THE PICK: That betting line is way out of hand. I favor Almeida, and by a substantial margin, but the implied odds provide value if you think Pickett could win this more than 15 percent of the time. The Englishman’s path to victory is straightforward: Freeze Almeida with strikes, duck under for takedowns and keep it on the mat. Conversely, Almeida just has to keep it standing and let his hands to the talking. The latter seems more likely, particularly given how hittable Pickett is at this stage of his career. The pick is Almeida by knockout in the second round.

Last Fights » The Prelims