Preview: UFC 189 ‘Mendes vs. McGregor’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Matt Brown (19-13, 12-7 UFC) vs. Tim Means (24-6-1, 6-3 UFC): An ultraviolent welterweight matchup caps off the undercard as Ohio’s Brown draws New Mexico’s Means. Brown was once on the cusp of a title shot, but consecutive losses to champion Robbie Lawler and former champion Johny Hendricks put him in real need of a win. Means has won four straight in the last year, the most recent a submission over George Sullivan in April. The Ohioan is probably the purest pressure fighter in MMA, and he is a monster when moving forward behind his straight right-left hook-right high kick sequence and diving into the clinch, where he employs lethal knees, elbows and Thai-style dumps. The problem is that he has little to offer in exchanges or when his opponent fights back and does not allow him to get off first, particularly in the middle of the cage. Means is plenty violent himself, with a nice muay Thai repertoire from his southpaw stance, great work in the clinch and a solid top game. If Means does not allow Brown to drive him backward, he should have an edge in output and in the exchanges. The pick is Means by decision.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Mike Swick (15-5, 10-4 UFC) vs. Alex Garcia (12-2, 2-1 UFC): Tristar Gym product Garcia returns to action after nearly a yearlong layoff due to injury and draws the venerable Swick, who has not fought in 31 months. Garcia suffered a blown knee in a decision loss to Neil Magny but before that had won two in a row. Swick has fought only twice in the last five years, knocking out DaMarques Johnson before suffering a knockout at the hands of Matt Brown . Garcia is a monstrous physical specimen with elite athleticism, crisp and powerful combination punching, authoritative takedowns and a good top game. It is difficult to say what Swick will look like after such a long layoff, but he has decent takedowns, some power in his hands and a nice choke game in transition. Youth, power, physicality and wrestling are all on the Canadian’s side here, and the pick is Garcia by knockout in the second round.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Cathal Pendred (17-2-1, 4-0 UFC) vs. John Howard (22-11, 6-6 UFC): Ireland’s Pendred returns to action only a month after defeating Augusto Montano in Mexico and draws the veteran Howard. Pendred is a relentless and durable grinder who does his best work in the clinch, working takedowns and controlling from the top, but he lacks skill on the feet and is glacially slow. Howard is no bundle of explosiveness himself, and despite his reputation as a striker, he, too, is mostly a grinder in the clinch and from top position, though he does pack power in his left hook and right low kick. This is unlikely to be an entertaining bout, and in an even-money matchup, I lean slightly toward Pendred’s size and learning curve. The pick is Pendred by slow-paced decision.

BANTAMWEIGHTS

Cody Garbrandt (6-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Enrique Briones (16-4-1, 1-0 UFC): Team Alpha Male product and blue-chip prospect Garbrandt draws “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” grad Briones in what looks like a showcase matchup for the American. Garbrandt is mostly a striker, and a talented one with great handspeed, big power and clean technique, but he also owns sharp knees in the clinch and an excellent wrestling game, all of which is made more effective by top-notch physical tools. Briones is a willing banger with power in his hands and a nice body-punching arsenal to go along with opportunistic submissions, but he is not much of a wrestler and lacks athleticism. The American should absolutely dominate Briones: The pick is Garbrandt by knockout in the first round.

FLYWEIGHTS

Neil Seery (15-10, 2-1 UFC) vs. Louis Smolka (8-1, 2-1 UFC): Hawaii’s Smolka takes on Ireland’s Seery in a crackling flyweight matchup. Smolka knocked out Richie Vaculik with a side kick in his last outing, and prior to that dropped a decision to Chris Cariaso. Seery has won two straight since losing his debut to Brad Pickett in March 2014. The Hawaiian is a rangy, high-volume striker who mixes up constant punching combinations with kicks and the occasional flashy jumping knee, but he is tremendously hittable and lacks power. The Irishman is mostly a boxer, with crisp combinations, a willingness to exchange and strong pressure footwork that keeps him in his opponent’s face. In a coin-flip fight, I slightly favor Seery’s experience, better defense and consistent aggression. The pick is Seery by decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Yosenis Cedeno (10-4, 1-2 UFC) vs. Cody Pfister (11-4-1, 0-1 UFC): Cuban émigré Cedeno draws Colorado’s Pfister in the UFC 189 opener. Cedeno has sandwiched losses to Chad Laprise and Ernest Chavez around a win over Jerrod Sanders, while James Moontasri blew Pfister out of the water in his debut. The Cuban is an outstanding athlete and a striker by preference, with big power in his hands and a nice arsenal of spinning kicks, but he has struggled to keep it standing. Pfister is a relentless wrestler, and though he is game and durable, he lacks much in the way of striking or other skills that might help him set up his takedowns. The pick is Cedeno by knockout in the first round.