Preview: UFC on Fox 23 ‘Shevchenko vs. Pena’

Featherweights

Alex Caceres (12-9) vs. Jason Knight (16-2)

THE MATCHUP: When Knight made his UFC debut, he was little more than a guard-based submission grappler. Trapped in that style, Knight was utterly styled on by Tatsuya Kawajiri in that bout. It was a predictable result, but fortunately, Knight took the cue to heart. Knight has fought twice in the year since that last loss, but in the process, he seems to have reinvented his style or maybe he simply just stopped caring.

As noted, Knight’s guard was once the hallmark of his game. As seen in his bout with Dan Hooker, he remains an aggressive and dangerous submission artist. Rather than allowing himself to be taken down and contentedly throwing up his legs from his back, Knight has taken to walking forward and throwing punches. Like the Diaz brothers -- men to whom he has been frequently compared since his stylistic shift -- Knight makes up for a lack of athletic talent with toughness, conditioning and wit. Knight is slow of both foot and hand, and his chin is an inviting target for anyone willing to attack him. At least, it seems that way until the opponent begins to attack, at which point Knight instantly dips and lances his man with a counter jab. Even when an opponent connects, Knight is ready to throw back, and he will continue doing so until another clean shot forces him to reset.

In some ways, Knight is an easy opponent for Caceres. He relies heavily on his hands, but Caceres’ arms are longer; plus, he employs a bevy of stretchy kicks. Knight’s pressure footwork needs some work, so Caceres will have the opportunity to outmaneuver him and set up shots from range. To do so, however, would require a good bit of discipline and consistency, two qualities Caceres unfortunately lacks.

Caceres is in fact famously unreliable. He competed with Urijah Faber but was outclassed by Masanori Kanehara; he dominated Cole Miller, until Miller decided to stop being dominated and instead dominated Caceres in the third round. Simply put, Caceres has potential, but his performances are all over the place. In studying Caceres and trying to understand his split nature, it occurred to me that perhaps initiative lies at the heart of his struggle. My best guess is that Caceres, like many fighters, is subject to his own ego and the insecurities attached to it. When Caceres feels in control of a fight, he picks his shots beautifully, moves his feet smoothly and controls range without sacrificing his creativity. However, when the opponent does not respect him, Caceres quickly gives into doubt. His fighting suffers, as he changes from smooth operator to flinching victim in the blink of an eye.

THE ODDS: Knight (-155), Caceres (+135)

THE PICK: Perhaps if Alex Caceres were a more dangerous striker, I could envision him punishing Knight for his lack of defense. If Knight were not such a stout grappler, I could expect Caceres to jump on his neck at the slightest provocation. If Knight were not so aggressive, I could picture Caceres smiling and skipping away to frustrate his enemy. Too bad for Caceres that Knight is durable, dependable and just downright mean. He does not have a style which screams “longevity,” but he should only need 15 minutes to beat Caceres with frequent takedowns, constant pressure and surprisingly powerful punches. The pick is Knight by unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims