Preview: UFC on Fox 23 ‘Shevchenko vs. Pena’

Middleweights

Nate Marquardt (35-16-2) vs. Sam Alvey (29-8): I love this fight. Marquardt’s time as a contender is long gone, but the savvy veteran simply refuses to go away entirely. Like Dan Henderson before him, Marquardt’s chin, agility and stamina have faded with time, but his power and timing have stayed, forcing him into the role of crafty counterpuncher. He is a glass cannon but a patient one, equipped with laser-sights. Unfortunately for Marquardt, Alvey has been counterpunching his whole career. Hanging back and waiting to land a big shot is not an adaptation for Alvey; it is simply the best way he knows how to fight. If Marquardt could summon up some of his old skill, he could hand Alvey the same fate given him by high-volume kickboxers like Tom Watson and Elias Theodorou. “Volume” is a key word here, however, and Marquardt does not use it, at least not anymore. In fact, Marquardt lands 33 percent fewer significant strikes than Alvey per minute -- and Alvey is not exactly renowned for his high output. If Marquardt’s only hope is to protect his chin and look for the big shot, he will likely lose a dull decision. If he decides to mix it up, it will come down to toughness. Alvey takes a great punch, and Marquardt does not. The pick is Alvey by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Raphael Assuncao (23-5) vs. Aljamain Sterling (12-1): This is a tough draw for one of the bantamweight division’s hottest prospects. Sterling suffered the first loss of his young career in May, when he was decisioned by Bryan Caraway. So of course now he gets to fight the guy who made Caraway look hopeless. Style matchups do matter, of course, and there is a saving grace for Sterling here: “The Funk Master” may be totally reliant on his kicks when striking, but Assuncao does his best work at about mid-range. In fact, Assuncao eats a higher percentage of kicks than he does any other strike; otherwise, his defense is quite good. Sterling should have the chance to rack up points while Assuncao, ever the patient fighter, looks for his openings. Unfortunately for the young buck, Assuncao throws at a much higher clip -- using mostly quick punches instead of kicks and takedowns will do that -- and he can compete with Sterling in every other range or phase. Assuncao is difficult to take down, and though he usually looks to scramble free whenever his back hits the mat, his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt comes in handy when opponents like Sterling want to tangle on the ground. Assuncao is creative and beguiling, and his wealth of high-level experience is simply too much for Sterling at this time. Assuncao by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Bobby Nash (8-1) vs. Jingliang Li (11-4): As the newest addition to the UFC’s welterweight division, the 26 year-old Nash is full of potential. He is well-built, with a thick torso and long limbs, and packs serious power in both hands, explaining his four knockout wins. He tends to prefer longer ranges and chooses his strikes carefully. This means Nash is likely vulnerable to pressure, and he has in fact been picked apart at times by opponents who refuse to give him the time and space he craves. Nash’s wrestling may be his best asset against Li. “The Leech” is not a fighter any foe should expect to hang back and wait; he is a high-volume kickboxer with a lancing jab and a selection of thudding low kicks to complement his combination punching. Like many mid-range fighters, Li pursues his range from the outset, even before he has had a chance to read his opponent, which means he is susceptible to counterstrikes and reactive takedowns early in his fights. As the seconds tick by, however, Li becomes a smooth boxer-puncher and even turns into a solid takedown artist in his own right. Nash is not out of his depth here, and his strength and power could come in handy against the hittable Li. Then again, volume matters, and Li is the better adjuster. The pick is Li by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Luis Henrique da Silva (12-1) vs. Jordan Johnson (6-0): Look at “Frankenstein,” making a quick turnaround after suffering his first professional loss in mid-December. The rage-fueled dark horse of the light heavyweight division does not have an easy night on his hands, despite the fact that this is Johnson’s UFC debut. The problem is Johnson’s martial background. Silva is a muay Thai fighter with a knack for submissions -- the archetypal action fighter who likes to fight at any range as long as he gets to hit his opponent. Johnson, on the other hand, is a lifelong wrestler. He has power in his hands, too, but he only chooses to throw them in earnest once he has his opponent trapped on the ground or against the fence. Silva is always dangerous and could end this fight in any position, but he is far more reliable as a striker than he is on the ground; and he is not particularly skilled at stuffing takedowns. Like all “Frankenstein” fights, this one should be a barnburner, but the pick is Johnson by third-round TKO.

Middleweights

Eric Spicely (9-1) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (10-1): MMA was once the sport of grapplers, but today the sport is dominated by strikers. To succeed as a submission specialist in modern MMA, there are still a few viable strategies, but for those without excellent wrestling or tremendous physical strength, there is only one: Pursue the takedown and do not stop until the fight is over or you feel the tap. Spicely may be a small middleweight with a woefully limited game, but he has this basic strategy down pat; and with it, he was able to defang and submit a very solid fighter in Thiago Santos in his last fight, scoring a huge upset. To suffer the same fate, Di Chirico would need to have an unforeseen lapse in his defenses or suffer a lapse of mental acuity. Di Chirico is a strong athlete with solid takedown defense. He maintains a high output, and thus far in his young career, he has never been badly outgrappled by an opponent. Spicely has already proven he cannot be counted out, but he has yet to prove he should be picked over more gifted, well-rounded athletes. Di Chirico by unanimous decision is the pick.

Light Heavyweights

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-4-1) vs. Jeremy Kimball (14-5): Another light heavyweight banger here, as Lima welcomes Kimball to the UFC. Kimball is perfect filler for a division badly in need of talent. He is energetic and entertaining, dangerous but imperfect. As a stout puncher with surprising speed and power, he reminds me of no one so much as Paul Buentello. Kimball has been bested five times, but unfortunately for Lima, they have all been submissions. Lima may have a decent arm-triangle choke, but 10 of his 14 wins are knockouts, and two of his four losses are submissions. The numbers alone make it obvious where Lima’s strengths lie. However, he is fantastically strong and explosive -- at least for the first round of a fight -- and could very well throw Kimball to the ground and exploit his porous grappling game. Then again, the longer this fight goes, the better Kimball will do. Expect him to survive an early onslaught and continue pecking away after Lima’s gas tank runs dry. The pick is Kimball by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Alexandre Pantoja (16-2) vs. Eric Shelton (10-2): Pantoja was the number one seed on Season 24 of “The Ultimate Fighter” -- and for good reason. A product of Nova Uniao, Pantoja is extremely well-rounded. He is hittable but makes up for it with aggression and a keen eye for openings. Like all Nova Uniao fighters, Pantoja is a surprisingly good wrestler with an excellent top game; and because this is flyweight, Pantoja has pruned his grappling style to suit the size of his opponents. As such, he is quick to attack dominant positions in scrambles. In short, he is a tough test for the young Shelton’s UFC debut. While Pantoja is probably the better fighter right now, Shelton is primed to pass him in time. Shelton is a phenomenal athlete who likes to move around and pick his shots from range -- a very workable style in this weight class. Combined with that style, however, his youth and inexperience make him a likely target for an older, more aggressive fighter. Shelton could catch his Brazilian foe on the way in, but Pantoja’s pressure will most likely get to him before long, and he will have trouble getting his guard game to work against such an excellent grappler. The pick is Pantoja by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Jason Gonzalez (10-3) vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-4): Both Gonzalez and Cottrell fell short in their UFC debuts, so this is a perfect opportunity to find out which man deserves his spot in the promotion. Gonzalez is a high-output southpaw kickboxer with a credible jiu-jitsu game to back up his striking. Cottrell is an aggressive submission grappler with a similarly aggressive but much less effective kickboxing game. Gonzalez’s chin is a concern, but his defense is better than his opponent’s: Cottrell walked into the right hand of Michel Prazeres for 15 minutes without any apparent adjustment. In the end, Gonzalez can probably hang with Cottrell in his area of expertise better than vice versa. Expect Gonzalez to rack up points on the feet and survive one or two scares on the ground. The pick is Gonzalez by unanimous decision.