Preview: UFC 189 ‘Mendes vs. McGregor’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. Brandon Thatch (11-2, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: With John Hathaway’s late withdrawal from his scheduled fight with Nelson, Thatch moves up from the undercard to face the Icelandic grappling prodigy. The American blew the doors off his first two UFC opponents, crushing Paulo Thiago and Justin Edwards in a combined 3:33, and he was competitive with former lightweight champion Benson Henderson in February before falling victim to a late choke. Nelson looked outstanding in winning his first four UFC outings, but he was handily beaten up by Rick Story in October. The winner has the look of a real rising talent at 170 pounds, while the loser will have lost two in a row and will need to reevaluate.

Thatch is an aggressive and violent fighter with a great deal of craft and technique to his game. He constantly moves forward, slipping his head off the centerline and working behind a crisp jab from both southpaw and orthodox. Equally comfortable in each stance, hard round kicks are his bread and butter, but he also excels at countering with hard punching combinations in the pocket. The real meat of his game, however, is the clinch. He uses his rangy frame for effortless control and leverage, throws devastating knees and has a sneaky arsenal of trips and throws that complement his strikes. He can do a bit of work from top position and take the back when his opponent tries to scramble out, but he lacks much of a bottom game aside from a good ability to get back to his feet. Pace is a strong suit, and even if he does not secure a knockout or submission, his process is sound enough to win rounds and take a decision.

Before Nelson took up Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he was a sport karate practitioner, and his game still reflects that base. He bounces around a few inches outside his opponent’s range and then leaps in with a quick, powerful straight right or cracks away with a right round kick. This approach serves him well, as his forward movement either forces his opponent backwards or brings Nelson into the clinch, where he can hit a slick trip or set up a shot takedown. On the mat, he is everything you would expect from a prodigy grappler, with surprisingly powerful strikes that set up a slick array of passes, an unshakeable base and a diverse arsenal of submissions. The basic BJJ sequence -- pass, mount, take the back, submit -- is his specialty, and his rear-naked choke is lethal. He works at a slow pace, however, and his lack of size and strength is an increasingly serious detriment.

BETTING ODDS: Thatch (-180), Nelson (+160)

THE PICK: Thatch will have enormous advantages in size, strength, athleticism, power and offensive output, and I think they will be the difference here. Nelson’s inability to match up physically with Story bodes poorly against an even bigger and stronger welterweight, and if Nelson cannot get this to the floor early, Thatch will eat him alive with pressure and volume on the feet. The pick is Thatch by knockout in the second round.

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