Preview: UFC on Fox 23 ‘Shevchenko vs. Pena’

Heavyweights

Andrei Arlovski (25-13) vs. Francis Ngannou (9-1)

THE MATCHUP: The tough thing about being the only talented prospect in an aging, shallow division is that the jump from club fighters to contenders happens quickly. Ngannou is just 10 fights into his career, and his last win was his best yet -- a freakish submission of Anthony Hamilton. It was a good win, but again, it came against Hamilton, a crude fighter who is currently 4-3 in the UFC. Arlovski, on the other hand, is a former UFC champion with nearly two decades of world-class experience under his belt. Simply put, he is something Ngannou has never seen before.

Ngannou has cultivated the aura of a striker; as a result, much of the discussion surrounding his last few wins had to do with his rapidly improving grappling game and not his striking mechanics. He has summarily outclassed all four of his UFC opponents on the feet, but we have not been asking some important questions. Who exactly is Ngannou outstriking? Is Curtis Blaydes quick on his feet or fast with his hands? Is Anthony Hamilton a bona fide knockout artist? Is Bojan Mihajlovic responsible for cracking a few of heavyweight MMA’s most legendary chins? No, of course not. None of those men had the chance to do any of these things, because Arlovski was doing it for them.

Ngannou is fast and powerful. He moves smoothly for such a big man and especially so for one so inexperienced. Simply put, he is a natural. On the other hand, so is Arlovski. Even now, at 37 years old, Arlovski is one of the fastest and most powerful punchers in the weight class. His is the sort of explosive power around which opponents, especially green ones, need always be cautious. Power and speed like Arlovski’s force a man to spend the first few minutes of a fight adjusting, and he will be in constant danger until he does so.

THE ODDS: Ngannou (-400), Arlovski (+350)

THE PICK: This matchup has layers. It is high time we had a look at Ngannou against some better opposition, but Arlovski -- even riding a three-fight losing streak -- could very well be too big a stride too soon. Ngannou is fond of countering, and he will almost certainly stand right in front of Arlovski’s thunderbolt cross on at least one occasion. Fortunately for Ngannou, he will probably do so with his feet planted, and this is heavyweight MMA -- which means it all comes down to chins. Arlovski is notoriously fragile, and his mandible is not growing harder with age. Ngannou has not faced a puncher like Arlovski, but provided he believes in his ability to take a shot, he should be able to catch Arlovski in an exchange at some point. The pick is Ngannou by second-round TKO.

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