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Women’s Strawweights

#12 SW | Virna Jandiroba (17-3, 3-3 UFC) vs. #13 SW | Angela Hill (13-11, 8-11 UFC)

ODDS: Jandiroba (-165), Hill (+145)

This should be a fun exercise to help sort some things out right underneath the strawweight elite. That is basically the role into which Hill has settled, as she has been unable to find the win to get her over the hump into real contention. Still, even that is an impressive bit of progress from where she started in her mixed martial arts career. Coming from a striking background, Hill had all of one pro fight before being cast on “The Ultimate Fighter” and subsequently making it to the UFC, so it was not a surprise when she quickly washed out in her first stint with the promotion. Hill then put together an impressive 2016 campaign under the Invicta Fighting Championships banner, quickly earning her way back onto the UFC roster and becoming one the most reliable fighters in the division since. Hill has gained fans thanks to her willingness to step in and fight as often as possible—2019 and 2020 each saw her fight four times, and she had three bouts in 2021—and she has progressed well inside the cage as a result. Her earlier fights were marked by an inability to pace herself, but Hill is now a consistent three-round fighter, or a five-round fighter in the case of her 2020 main event against Michelle Waterson. While “Overkill” has cleaned up a lot of the holes in her game, she has never quite found the one go-to skill to leave a huge impact on her fights. She does not have much in the way of punching power and is not a dominant wrestler or an amazing athlete, so the result is Hill going to a lot of close decisions that, for whatever reason, often seem to go against her. Losses to Waterson, Claudia Gadelha and Amanda Lemos all stick out as split decisions that could have easily gone Hill’s way and had a huge impact on her career, but instead, they have been missed opportunities that have kept her just outside the title picture. Hill is still a good fighter, however, and there is a chance for her to rebound from the Lemos loss with a big win against another Brazilian in Jandiroba.

Jandiroba has made some surprising strides during her three years and change on the UFC roster. “Carcara” came to the UFC in 2019 after her own successful run in Invicta, and the book seemed to be out that she was an impressive grappler without much in the way of striking or athletic upside. After losing her debut to Carla Esparza, Jandiroba did indeed rely on her submission chops in wins over Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig, but when faced with another grappling ace in Mackenzie Dern, Jandiroba showed some impressively gritty striking in a losing effort. Those gains held true in Jandiroba’s two fights in 2021. She was an aggressive and surprisingly powerful striker in a one-sided win over Kanako Murata and continued that approach in a game effort—albeit a clear loss—against Amanda Ribas in October. The Ribas fight does suggest that Jandiroba will keep hitting a clear athletic wall, but her progression has been surprising enough that she could manage to find another level to her effectiveness. Unsurprisingly for a Hill fight, this figures to be another close matchup. Jandiroba does seem to be fully dedicated to cutting out any wasted time and imposing her will on her opponent, so she should find some success early with her wrestling, even though Hill has improved that part of her game. Assuming Hill survives, this figures to go through a few phases over the course of 15 minutes: a relatively even stretch weighing Hill’s volume versus Jandiroba’s power, then Hill finding some moments late as Jandiroba figures to tire. That all adds up to another split decision. When in doubt, take the fighter who is likely to have the bigger moments.

FEELY’s PREDICTION: The pick is Jandiroba via decision.

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