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Heavyweights

Fabricio Werdum (23-9-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (18-6)
Odds: Gustafsson (-340), Werdum (+280)

Gustafsson is coming out of retirement and moving up to heavyweight, and it'll be interesting to see how this experiment goes. For a few years, the Swede went up the standard prospect track to become one of the top light heavyweights in the world -- an early loss to Phil Davis caused him to work on his wrestling, and by the time he became a top contender, "The Mauler" had put together a solid combination of range striking and effective grappling. And then, of course, came his 2013 title bout against Jon Jones, where Gustafsson's long frame seemed to give Jones some issues; the fight wound up becoming an instant classic, and still holds up as the one fight during Jones's peak where the light heavyweight great actually seemed close to losing his belt. It was also a fight where Gustafsson made his name in a loss, though frankly, it feels like his career has coasted on that ever since. There have been a few strong performances since; Gustafsson nearly took the belt from Daniel Cormier in another close title fight loss, and his 2017 win over Glover Teixeira was the sharpest his striking has ever looked. But there were just as many flat performances along the way, and Gustafsson's last two bouts weren't particularly inspiring - Jones seemed to learn all the lessons from their first fight that Gustafsson didn't and earned a one-sided win in a rematch, and his last bout saw Anthony Smith suddenly turned the tide against him for a surprising late-round stoppage. Without an obvious immediate path to light heavyweight gold, the time seemed right for Gustafsson to retire, but now that he feels the need to return, this move up to heavyweight is a worthy gambit, even if it's unclear how well it will work. At any rate, some questions should be answered here against Werdum, who has to address some issues of his own.

It was unclear how Werdum would fare upon returning to the UFC in 2012; he had dethroned the unbeatable Fedor Emilianenko just two fights prior, but followed that up with a flat and terrible loss to Alistair Overeem. But Werdum slowly marched his way back up the heavyweight ranks without much issue, first taking an interim title against Mark Hunt before scoring another win over a seemingly unbeatable opponent, this time tapping out Cain Velasquez to win undisputed gold. But heavyweight glory never lasts long in the UFC, and the next time Werdum entered the cage, he found himself face down in Curitiba at the hands of Stipe Miocic. Even after another loss - this time a much more controversial decision - to Overeem, Werdum figured to hang around the top of the division until challenger status finally circled back his way. Things went well enough for a few fights, but everything started to go south somewhere around the third round of his 2018 fight against Alexander Volkov. Werdum controlled most of the fight with his elite grappling, but suddenly found his gas tank on empty, giving Volkov the opportunity to turn the fight around and score a surprising stoppage victory. And that'd be Werdum's last match for the next two years, owing to a failed drug test shortly thereafter. Upon his return in May, Werdum frankly was terrible - there have been spates of his career where he's looked unmotivated and stunk up the joint as a result, and this was that, only older. Werdum had about three minutes of cardio this time around, and while he gutted through to the end of a close decision against Alexey Oleynik, expectations have been firmly lowered. While Werdum's skilled enough that he probably can't help but earn a few more wins from here on out, who knows where he's at by this point of his career.

This is one of those fights where it comes down to which fighter is less deserving of any faith. Gustafsson's somehow still just 33 years-old and relatively spry, so by heavyweight standards he still has a few good years left in him -- and, frankly, at heavyweight they don't even have to be all that good. But the dynamics for this feel all wrong - Gustafsson's whole deal is size and athleticism, but heavyweight bouts often come down to a contest of durability, which has always been a bit of a question for Gustafsson. The Smith fight, a bout where everything was going well until his opponent suddenly shifted the momentum with one burst of offense, feels more like an omen than anything else. So while things may not look too sanguine down the road for Gustafsson at heavyweight, does any of that matter here against this version of Werdum? Werdum's still tough, but if he's as plodding and devoid of energy as he was just two months ago, Gustafsson might just be too quick to get himself in any sort of real danger - one gets the sense that Gustafsson can basically run laps for the first four minutes of this fight and then have his way with Werdum for the rest of the bout. And of course, there's also the factor of how Gustafsson is handling this move up to heavyweight; as Gian Villante showed, giving a fighter 60 extra pounds to work with can often go wrong. Werdum might just clang Gustafsson with one knockout blow, even late in the fight while he's exhausted, but Gustafsson's ability to set a fast pace should be able to take this for as long as he remains upright. The pick is for Gustafsson to eventually tire Werdum into a third-round stoppage, but this could be a mess.

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