Preview: UFC 309 ‘Jones vs. Miocic’

Middleweights

Bo Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Paul Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC)

ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
The UFC’s Nickal experiment rolls on. Nickal was clearly a blue-chip prospect as soon as there was any chance he would transition to mixed martial arts, owing to an elite collegiate wrestling career that nearly got him into the Olympics. In practice, Nickal has also proven to be a quick study. His striking still isn’t particularly clean, but it has been powerful enough to make him a knockout threat at times. More importantly, he has shown some capable grappling chops to take advantage of his wrestling skills. The main question is essentially how much is too much too soon for Nickal, and this seems like the first time that might actually become a concern. Nickal’s first two UFC fights, against Jamie Pickett and Val Woodburn, were set up as dominant wins and went accordingly, but his UFC 300 showing against Cody Brundage showed the first instances of what even could be considered adversity. It still ended in a second-round submission win for Nickal in a fight he mostly controlled, but there were a few points where he was stalled out and forced to regroup. Craig makes for a fascinating next challenge, as it’s a clear step up in level of competition while also a matchup where Nickal will clearly get the fight that he wants.

Craig has spent most of his UFC career at light heavyweight, where the Scotsman had a shocking level of success as a one-dimensional but aggressive submission artist. He remains the only man to have defeated Magomed Ankalaev, doing so with a miracle triangle choke in 2018, and went on a six-fight undefeated streak that had him as a dark horse title contender early in 2022. Those hopes were dashed after losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, which prompted Craig to cut down to middleweight in a move that hasn’t entirely worked out. He managed to defeat fellow grappling specialist Andre Muniz in his first fight down at 185 pounds but has otherwise struggled with the more skilled competition at middleweight that is also now much faster on the feet. Both men will likely be trying to get this fight to the same place—with Nickal on top of “Bearjew”—and while Craig might succeed in frustrating the All-American wrestler or stalling him out, that does seem like a losing proposition in the long run. The pick is Nickal via second-round submission.

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Jones vs. Miocic
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Nickal vs. Craig
Silva vs. Araujo
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Prelims: McGhee vs. Martinez