UFC News & FeaturesBantamweights
#11 BW | Mario Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC) vs. #10 BW | Jose Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC)ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)
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How long can Aldo keep this up? If Aldo had retired a decade ago, he’d still have a career that ranked among the all-time greats. Initially a whirlwind of violence while he marched up the ladder to establish himself as the world’s top featherweight, the Brazilian settled into a defensively mindful style as champion that helped put the 145-pound weight class on the technical cutting edge of the sport. Even when he’s suffered one-sided losses to the likes of Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, Aldo has always regrouped and put on performances that have reaffirmed his place as a legend of the sport. After losing to Alexander Volkanovski in 2019, Aldo announced a plan to cut down to bantamweight, which frankly seemed like a horrible idea at the time. If Aldo seemed destined to ever change weight classes, it seemed likely he’d have to move up to lightweight thanks to his muscular frame rather than move down to 135 pounds. As it turned out, Aldo knew best. Even while he might not look great cosmetically down a class, he’s as sharp as ever and still among the Top 10 bantamweights in the world—at worst. After an unsuccessful title fight against Petr Yan in 2020, Aldo got right back in the mix after three straight wins, then surprisingly retired after a 2022 loss to Merab Dvalishvili. It was a clear Dvalishvili win, but the fact that he never got past neutralizing Aldo into putting together any sort of dominant offense affirmed that the Brazilian was still competing at an elite level. After taking a few boxing matches, Aldo made his return to mixed martial arts in May, providing a much-needed shot in the arm to a card in Rio de Janeiro and looking excellent in the process. Jonathan Martinez is one of the division’s top young up-and-comers, and yet, he still looked slow against Aldo, who outstruck him for three rounds. If this were any division other than bantamweight, Aldo might still be able to fight his way back to a title shot at 38 years of age, but for the time being, he’ll be content to keep knocking off the rising prospects of the division. Bautista is next to step up.
Bautista quickly established himself as an entertaining and talented fighter upon hitting the UFC, though things were initially rough in terms of results. He got thrown into the deep end against Cory Sandhagen in his 2019 debut, then had a winning streak broken by a sudden knockout loss against Trevin Jones two years later. That last result caused Bautista to take a step back and retool, and now that he’s hit an effective balance, it’s been off to the races. Bautista’s better at picking his spots, but once he does, he’s still extremely comfortable pressuring his way through an all-out war. Bautista’s last two wins over Da’Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simon have each followed the same outline. It’s taken Bautista a round to feel out the opponents, but by the end of things, he has his wrestling and grappling going to a point that he can pour on the offense. It’ll be fascinating to see how Bautista approaches this matchup in terms of his level of aggression. Aldo has always leveraged his accuracy as a way to discourage his opponents from picking up the pace, conserving his own gas tank in the process. Of course, breaking through Aldo’s defenses enough to wear him out is easier said than done, as it requires a level of durability and bull-headedness that only fighters like Holloway have been able to achieve. Those margins might be getting thinner, between Aldo’s additional weight cut at 135 pounds, his age and the fact that this fight is taking place at elevation, so Bautista might be able to thread the needle enough to walk away with a win if he turns back the clock a bit to his more aggressive form. Given his last few performances—and while Bautista might be able to take this fight over by the final horn—the call is that Aldo will have already built up a lead on the scorecards. The pick is Aldo via decision.
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