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Lightweights

Terrance McKinney (13-6, 3-3 UFC) vs. Mike Breeden (10-5, 0-2 UFC)

ODDS: McKinney (-270), Breeden (+220)

McKinney certainly finds himself in a crucial spot here. Coming into the UFC, “T. Wrecks” had an approach that was clearly flawed but figured to keep him relevant based on sheer entertainment. A standout athlete with some wrestling chops, McKinney would blitz his opponent with shocking accuracy and a broad array of ideas, with the understanding that his gas tank would only last a few minutes. That earned McKinney three electric victories in his first four UFC bouts—along with a near-miss in what would have been a huge win against Drew Dober—and 2023 figured to be more of the same, at least until he came out for his January bout against Ismael Bonfim. McKinney suddenly pivoted to a more patient approach that did not result in much success at all, leading to a second-round knockout loss. His July return against Nazim Sadykhov was an even worse sign. McKinney leaned on his wrestling and grappling with a more thoughtful approach to clearly take the first round but still did not preserve his cardio and lost the fight early in the second. Just four weeks later, McKinney steps in on late notice to try and find some much-needed momentum against Breeden in what should be a winnable fight. Breeden is a solid fighter who has clearly earned a shot in a major promotion, but he has never seemed particularly poised for success in the UFC. “Money Mike” is a gamer, but he is almost always at a clear athletic disadvantage in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions, which has played out clearly in his two UFC bouts to date. The good news for Breeden? He may just need to survive a round for McKinney to implode given the latter’s recent performances. Still, McKinney should find his typical early success, and even with his newfound pivot towards wrestling and grappling, that might just be the right recipe to beat Breeden in short order. The pick is McKinney via first-round submission.

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