Preview: UFC 201 ‘Lawler vs. Woodley’

Women’s Strawweights

Rose Namajunas (5-2) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0)

THE MATCHUP: This is a contenders’ match to be praised. Namajunas has looked exceptional ever since her defeat to Carla Esparza at “The Ultimate Fighter 20” Finale. The most notable improvements have been in her boxing. Once prone to an overabundance of high-flying kicks and wild attacks, Namajunas has since learned to rely on a ramrod jab and straight right, flitting in and out of the pocket with both feet in position.

Namajunas’ feared ground game has seen improvements, as well. “Thug Rose” spent much of her fight with strawweight star Paige VanZant in top position, but her attack was notably more patient than in previous contests. Where Namajunas was once happy to give up position in the pursuit of a submission, she stayed composed and floated on top of VanZant while she sought desperately for a sweep or scramble. Her submission threat was no less potent, and it was indeed more reliable for her increased focus on positional control. Namajunas attempted four submissions before finally locking in the rear-naked choke that won her the fight.

This ground attack was enhanced by a similarly improved wrestling game. Namajunas, a tall, lanky fighter, has learned to use her height to her advantage. Rather than shooting for takedowns from distance, she uses her frame in the clinch, where she utilizes underhooks to upset her opponent’s balance and bring the fight to the ground.

Kowalkiewicz has yet to claim a victory as impressive as Namajunas’ over VanZant and Tecia Torres, but her MMA record is quite respectable. With wins over Mizuki Inoue and Randa Markos, she comes into this fight having earned a chance at title contention. Kowalkiewicz is an attritive fighter. Her style is reminiscent of Michael Bisping’s, circa 2009, before “The Count” learned to set his feet and sit down on combinations. Because she moves so much and seems to lack technical polish, she rarely does tremendous damage with her strikes, but she pushes a fast pace. She throws 25 strikes per minute. For comparison, strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk only throws 16. That kind of activity allows Kowalkiewicz to overwhelm opponents and makes her a fantastic round winner, even if she does significantly less damage and also absorbs one more strike per minute than the champion in the process.

Kowalkiewicz is most dangerous from the clinch, where she lands hard knees and slicing elbows. She also possesses effective ground-and-pound: With both feet planted and her opponent pinned in place, Kowalkiewicz can generate more pop on the ground than she can on the feet. Though she has yet to face a wrestler or grappler of Namajunas’ skill, Kowalkiewicz is an able defender of takedowns and usually scores a few blows in the clinch to repay her opponent for the attempt.

THE ODDS: Namajunas (-235), Kowalkiewicz (+195)

THE PICK: Though the win was impressive, Namajunas is capable of turning in better performances than the one in her fight with Torres. Namajunas is an emotional fighter and spoke openly about the pressure she felt rematching Torres, one of only two women to beat her. Thanks to the calm and capable cornering of Trevor Wittman, however, Namajunas persevered and earned a decision. Though meaningful, this bout will almost certainly take less of a mental toll on Namajunas, and her rangy jabs and strong clinch wrestling are the precise tools needed to stop a swarming volume striker like Kowalkiewicz. The Polish standout will likely outland Namajunas in at least one round, but “Thug Rose” will land the harder, cleaner strikes and test Kowalkiewicz’s near-perfect takedown defense like no one before. The pick is Namajunas by unanimous decision.

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