Preview: UFC 189 ‘Mendes vs. McGregor’

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UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

Robbie Lawler (25-10, 10-4 UFC) vs. Rory MacDonald (18-2, 9-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: MacDonald and Lawler meet again, this time with the welterweight belt on the line. The veteran Lawler took their first fight by close split decision, which propelled him into a four-fight run that included a “Fight of the Year” with Johny Hendricks, blowout victories over Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown and finally a razor-thin decision win that snagged the title. Since that narrow loss, MacDonald has defeated Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley and Tarec Saffiedine, and he seems to be on the cusp of fulfilling the promise that fans and commentators have long expected from him.

Lawler is still one of the biggest punchers in the sport, but he has tempered that raw thunder with an increasingly technical striking repertoire over the last several years. He is a master of rhythm and timing, flicking half-speed jabs and crosses to get his opponent used to one speed before loading up with a monstrous right hook or left hand that catches him off guard. The pocket is Lawler’s specialty, and he excels at slipping his head off the centerline, rolling with shots and firing right back. He complements that arsenal with a powerful left kick that he throws at all levels. Opponents who slip off the centerline to avoid his straight left run themselves directly into the left high kick, and the threat of the stepping left knee adds to the danger. He works at a quick pace, and his cardio has generally been up to the task of fighting for five hard rounds.

The only reason Lawler’s striking game flourishes is because he is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the sport. Not only does he stuff shots with a strong sprawl, outstanding balance and a clean limp-leg, but he excels at sneaking in punches and elbows as his opponent tries to complete the takedown. If planted on the mat, Lawler does not panic; he either hips out and scrambles or uses butterfly hooks to elevate, create space and get back to his feet.

MacDonald is something of a chameleon: He reinvents himself from fight to fight depending on the strategies dreamed up by his trainer, Firas Zahabi, which he tailors to the opponent in question. Regardless of the specific matchup, however, MacDonald’s game shows some consistencies. The basis of his game is a rangy, crisp jab that is effectively rhythm-less and therefore difficult to time or counter. He follows that with a strong cross and from time to time sits down on a combination of three to six punches that he likes to punctuate with a hard left uppercut. Kicks are another strong suit, particularly a stabbing right front kick and a quick question-mark kick that mimics the same arc. In terms of space and distance, MacDonad likes to push forward aggressively and does his best work with his opponent backed up against the fence. The pocket is not his strongest suit -- he rarely moves his head and prefers to rely on the combination of a tricky guard and distance to protect his chin -- but he is difficult to bully and will pick his spots to fire back.

As good a striker as he has become, MacDonald’s wrestling remains outstanding. He has a tremendously diverse array of takedowns that includes singles, doubles, trips, suplexes and knee-taps, all of which he chains together beautifully and finishes with outstanding technique. His best skill set, however, is his work from top position. His posture is impossible to break, his control and passes are outstanding and his ground striking is some of the best in the sport. In all phases, MacDonald is defensively sound, works at a good if not blistering pace and has the cardio to go deep into the fight.

BETTING ODDS: MacDonald (-175), Lawler (+155)

THE PICK: This is a fascinating matchup. If Lawler can keep it on the feet and in the pocket for the majority of the fight, he should be able to take it, but there is no reason to think that MacDonald will oblige him. The Canadian’s great strength is his ability to dictate the pace and range of the engagement with his jab, front kick and footwork, which he was generally able to do in their first meeting. The X-factor in that kind of fight, however, is Lawler’s crushing power, and even a slow pace still gives the American the opportunity to land the big shot. Lawler has made a habit of coming out of the gate on fire, but I expect MacDonald to slow things down, work behind the jab and complete takedowns in the middle of the cage once he has eventually sucked Lawler into his pace and rhythm. The combination of top control, judicious work at range and avoiding exchanges should give the Canadian the edge, so the pick is MacDonald by close decision.

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