Preview: UFC 187 ‘Johnson vs. Cormier’

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UFC MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

Chris Weidman (12-0, 8-0 UFC) vs. Vitor Belfort (24-10, 13-6 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The fourth time’s the charm, I suppose. Belfort and Weidman were initially scheduled to meet in May 2014, then December and finally in February. Now, they will finally clash. Weidman has looked nearly unbeatable in his UFC career, twice finishing the god-like Anderson Silva and then snagging a decision against Lyoto Machida in his second title defense. The veteran Belfort has not fought since November 2013, but he is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, with all of those victories by head-kick knockout. This is an intriguing matchup of the old warhorse and the new-breed champion that should produce an excellent fight.

Weidman is a born-and-bred pressure fighter whose entire game is predicated on consistent forward movement. The combination of clean footwork, surprising length and deceptive speed makes it very difficult for even the most slippery strikers to keep the fight in the middle of the cage.

The long, sweeping left hook that he used to knock out Silva and the rangy kicks he used against Machida add another layer of difficulty to escaping his pressure. Once he has his opponent pinned near the cage, he drops potent punching combinations mixed with slicing elbows and brutal knees.

That emphasis on controlling where in the cage the fight takes place makes the rest of Weidman’s game more effective. He is a monster in the clinch, with brutal knees, elbows and short punches in tight. A Division I All-American wrestler at Hofstra University, he still has a fantastic arsenal of takedowns, with an emphasis on the snatch single, driving doubles and trip finishes to his beautiful chain wrestling sequences. Nobody has yet succeeded in taking him to the mat in MMA. As good as the rest of his game is, top-control grappling might be Weidman’s best skill set. His posture is incredible, which allows him to drop bombing punches and elbows. He passes quickly and smoothly and maintains strong control, and if his opponent attempts to scramble, he constantly looks for a brabo choke or guillotine in transition.

Belfort is a southpaw striker by trade who prefers to work on the outside, either pot-shotting with a strike at a time or flurrying on the counter. Despite his advanced age and two decades in the sport, he remains a plus athlete with great explosiveness, wicked hand speed and unreal power in his shots. He tends to work slowly, measuring with his jab and firing off single left hands and round kicks as he circles. When his opponent commits in the pocket, Belfort responds with a flurry of punches, alternating between straight lefts, left hooks, right hooks and the occasional uppercut. He has started mixing in more kicks recently, using his low kicks to measure and draw the dominant outside angle against orthodox opponents and set up his straight left. His left high kick and wheel kick also plays off his straight left, since the threat of his punches tends to draw the opponent’s hands to the front of his head, leaving the side exposed. He is smooth defensively, with decent head movement, good parries and blocks and excellent control of the distance.

Offensive wrestling was once a strength for Belfort, but he has not successfully completed a takedown since 2007. He has been good defensively, although he has given up takedowns to the skilled wrestlers he has faced, especially when he fails to stuff the initial shot and they chain together their attempts. Belfort is a longtime black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has active hips on his back along with quick transitions, but we rarely see that portion of his game.

BETTING ODDS: Weidman (-470), Belfort (+375)

THE PICK: Despite Belfort’s devastating run over the last several years, I think this matchup favors Weidman by a wide margin, perhaps even wider than the betting odds indicate. Belfort is not getting any younger, and the lack of testosterone replacement therapy for this fight certainly cannot help him. From a stylistic perspective, Weidman is longer, throws more volume and has the pressure footwork to consistently walk down Belfort and take away the space he needs to work his counter game at range. He is also drastically better in the clinch and wrestling phases, and from top position, he holds an enormous advantage. I expect Weidman to pressure relentlessly, chop down Belfort’s legs and body with kicks and push him up against the fence, where he can work his clinch and takedown games. The American will likely eat a few shots in the process, but he is tremendously durable, and I have a hard time seeing Belfort knocking him out. Moreover, the cardio advantage has to go to Weidman, especially in conjunction with his attrition-based approach. The pick is Weidman by submission in the third round.

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