Prime Picks: 2023 PFL Season Opener

When the Ultimate Fighting Championship is away, the Professional Fighters League will play. For the first regular-season event of PFL’s 2023 season, the promotion claims Saturday as its own, putting featherweights and light heavyweights on display to start things off with several bangs. Join this abbreviated edition of Prime Picks, where we call our shot on the main event and lob an eephus pitch down the middle for a smooth and simple two-piece parlay.

Brendan Loughnane Wins by TKO/KO (-225)

Even when drilling down all the way to a specific method of victory, Loughnane is so heavily favored over Marlon Moraes—around -700, with the comeback roughly +500—that he is still widely expected at over 2-to-1 odds to finish the Brazilian with strikes. This comes despite celebrating only two knockouts in his eight PFL wins, with the rest on the scorecards. The 2022 champ gets an especially favorable first outing in this assignment, as he looks to hand a longtime UFC vet and former World Series of Fighting champ his sixth loss in a row. This losing streak includes a knockout at the behest of Merab Dvalishvili—which means Moraes’ chin and attached recoverability has been placed in the outside garbage. Loughnane, even at this specific line, is still worthwhile enough to pursue the stoppage line due to strikes.

Moraes has shown to have about five minutes of gas these days before faltering and getting utterly destroyed. Even at the tender age of 34 and no longer cutting weight to 135 pounds, his high amount of fight miles and the brutal cumulative damage he absorbed the last two years leaves him in prime position to get his block knocked off by the Brit. “Magic Marlon” looked closer to his old form in November when he arrived in the PFL, as he faced former foe Sheymon Moraes. The lesser-known of the two Moraeses took damage and even suffered takedowns, but he came back with one single left hand that scrambled his counterpart’s circuits. Loughnane can do that, and he do so much quicker, without 10 rough minutes beforehand.

The largest liability with Moraes at this stage may actually be his aggressiveness, as he still fights like a someone over-reliant on his durability. A face-first, eat-two-to-land-one approach is not the kind of game that he can play any longer. Many of his recent losses have stemmed from solid strikes, but they have not always been the most individually damaging blows. Some competitors, as they age—think Andrei Arlovski or Alistair Overeem—change their styles to protect their mugs more and fight to their current strengths. While his coaches at American Top Team have almost certainly tried to get him to adjust his approach or at least compete a little smarter, that plan goes out the window once he gets hit in the mouth. Loughnane is not a one-hitter quitter, but he possesses the kind of stinging power that Moraes could have shrugged off and kept attacking five years ago. This iteration still presents as a berserker but massively to his detriment. If one wants to throw down on this PFL headliner, this line might be the best to squeeze any remaining blood from this proverbial stone.

DOUBLE PLAY (+113)

Krzysztof Jotko-Will Fleury Goes to Decision (-210)
Bubba Jenkins-Chris Wade Goes to Decision (-225)

When the remainder of sportsbooks that provide lines on PFL events—not every book will offer them– the prop bets should fill out marginally. At the very least, lines on the over/under and going to decision will almost certainly be snagged, but that line may shift quickly when it becomes an option for savvy bettors. Of the five main card tilts, the two seemingly most likely to go to decision will make up this two-leg accumulator. The first is Jotko-Fleury, as both fighters sport finish rates below 50%. When accounting for fights in major promotions, that percentage falls to 9% for Jotko and 40% for the Irishman, all while suffering few stoppage losses between them. Jotko can embrace the grind like nobody’s business, and with 20 extra pounds with which to work, he should have the strength to force ample clinching or land takedowns to make this a full 15-minute affair.

The other bout is a rematch between Jenkins and Wade that ended in the hands of the judges back in 2021. The two grapplers put on a thrilling performance, with plenty of wild exchanges, submission attempts and spammed takedowns. There is little to suggest that this encounter should play out any differently than the first, as it has not been two years since their first meeting, and their skills are what they are at this point. After hitting the mat, Wade did nearly catch Jenkins with a few chokes, especially an anaconda, but Jenkins toughed them out and threatened back with offense of his own. Wade has never been stopped as a professional, and Jenkins has not displayed enough firepower against top-shelf opponents to think he will be the first to do so. On the other hand, while Jenkins has succumbed to strikes and submissions in the past—including a knockout in the 2022 final against the aforementioned Loughnane—Wade’s best bet may be a head kick and not a crafty maneuver. This expected 30 minutes of combat between Jotko-Fleury and Jenkins-Wade pays off at plus money for two anticipated outcomes put together, and when the former hears the final bell, it will be worth it.