Preview: UFC 279 ‘Chimaev vs. Diaz’

UFC 279 on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas has been understandably much maligned in comparison to other numbered events. There is not even the requisite main event title fight, and whatever drama exists with the welterweight headliner between Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz has mostly been about the latter’s contractual status with the company. There is also not much in terms of high-stakes support, but the fights themselves should be fun. There may not be much suspense about the main event, but Tony Ferguson’s welterweight return against Jingliang Li could result in some interesting action, and Kevin Holland draws an excellent catchweight pairing against Daniel Rodriguez. Further down, the women’s bantamweight fight between Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson could earn the former a title shot. Add in the potential for Ion Cutelaba to drag a firefight out of Johnny Walker, and there is enough here to make it an entertaining time, even if the criticisms are well-deserved.

Now to the UFC 279 “Chimaev vs. Diaz” preview:

Welterweights

#3 WW | Khamzat Chimaev (11-0, 5-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (20-13, 15-11 UFC)

ODDS: Chimaev (-975), Diaz (+675)

This is likely the end of Diaz’s UFC career—it represents the last fight on his contract, and getting this booking has been contentious—and while the promotion looks to be sending him off with a loss, it has been an amazing run. Diaz burst onto the UFC scene in 2007 while still under the shadow of his older brother, Nick Diaz, but he proved to be a popular figure in his own right. With endless reserves of natural swagger and charisma, both Diazes were relatively bulletproof as far as losses damaging their brand, particularly given that they were almost always controlled rather than finished; so in a real fight, it was obvious to them who the eventual victor would be. As for the younger Diaz, a one-sided loss in a 2012 title fight against Benson Henderson left him a bit rudderless for a few years. Formerly a fixture of the UFC’s biggest cards, he had fought infrequently with some spotty performances headed into his December 2015 bout against Michael Johnson. It was viewed as a big-name opportunity for Johnson to rebound from an undeserved decision loss a few months prior. However, Diaz won the fight and then proceeded to write his own destiny afterwards, cutting an obscenity-laced interview challenging Conor McGregor. It was not taken all that seriously in the moment, as things quickly pivoted towards then-featherweight champion McGregor attempting to take the lightweight title from Rafael dos Anjos. Instead, dos Anjos broke his foot, McGregor needed an opponent on less than two weeks’ notice and magic happened. Diaz got the nod, and the pre-fight build between the two had an electric dynamic. Diaz became a household name in one night, scoring the upset and upending the plans of everyone but himself. The rematch was one of the UFC’s most commercially successful events ever, and even with a loss, Diaz had enough money and clout to call his own shots. It was nearly three years before Diaz made his return with a win over Anthony Pettis, and while he has looked diminished and lost his two fights since, it has once again been an amazing demonstration of his ability to preserve the Diaz brand. His loss to Jorge Masvidal was a cut stoppage, and his near-finish of Leon Edwards in their five-round fight seemingly nullified the previous 24 minutes of domination from the Englishman. Since then, Diaz has been vocal in his desire to fight out his contract and become a free agent, with both sides throwing barbs at the other as they have struggled to get a fight booked. Now comes the apparent end of an era, with Chimaev expected to bring Diaz’s UFC career to a brutal close.

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Edwards’ win over Kamaru Usman might delay Chimaev’s eventual title shot—Usman does clearly deserve an immediate rematch—but his ascent to the welterweight championship is starting to feel inevitable. Chimaev became the talk of the sport in the summer of 2020. Stepping in on late notice for his UFC debut, the Russian-Swede ran through John Phillips and then stepped into the cage just 10 days later to get another dominant win over Rhys McKee. The UFC was then firmly in the Chimaev business. He returned less than two months after the McKee win to score a 17-second knockout of Gerald Meerschaert, and the promotion sought to cap off the year with “Borz” attempting to take out Edwards, then the top welterweight contender, in a main event slot. However, Chimaev’s career was almost over before it got out of the gates. A major bout of COVID-19 kept Chimaev out of action for over a year, a stretch that included an apparent retirement before he quickly reversed course. Despite all those issues, Chimaev picked up right where he left off upon his return late in 2021, running over Jingliang Li within a round—the third straight fight that saw his opponent fail to hit him with even one significant strike. Chimaev’s most recent bout, an April win over Gilbert Burns, was clearly his toughest yet but only served to build his hype. The two went toe-to-toe for a three-round war, and while Burns managed to blast Chimaev multiple times, the undefeated contender proved to have the durability and the cardio to hang at a championship level. Chimaev’s body may yet betray him and he remains unproven as a five-round fighter, but this looks like one of the truly special peaks in the history of the sport; and this is a terrible fight for Diaz, who has struggled with stronger wrestlers even at his peak. It would be amazing if Diaz could somehow thread the needle and find a submission, but it is unlikely he survives the mauling that Chimaev can lay on him in the early going. Diaz will likely fight to the end, but the referee figures to step in at some point. The pick is Chimaev via second-round stoppage.

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Li vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Rodriguez
Aldana vs. Chiasson
Cutelaba vs. Walker
The Prelims