Parlaying and Praying: UFC Fight Night 142

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

* * *
Well folks, it’s that time of year. After Black Friday and Cyber Monday, it has always been par for the course to see the MMA schedule heat up. Over recent years, however, with the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s aggressive schedule, Bellator MMA’s expansion and the rise of notable international promotions, late November and the month of December have become a pure blitz attack of seemingly endless fights. This weekend marks the start of our hardly quaint, annual tradition, but the foremost of them all is UFC Fight Night 142 on Saturday in Adelaide, Australia.

In less than a 36-hour span, we have two UFC cards, two Bellator cards, a Legacy Fighting Alliance card and an event from Europe’s foremost promotion: Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki in Poland. That’s just scratching the surface. Obviously, if you’re in Sweden, you might want to check out Superior Challenge, or if you’re in Brazil, maybe Imortal Fight Championship floats your boat. Suffice to say, no matter what part of the globe you inhabit, there’s more than enough MMA to keep you satisfied, even if you’re the hungriest of fight consumers.

Regardless, we still have a former UFC heavyweight champion fighting an unbeaten contender on a card that features a former K-1 World Grand Prix winner, one of the greatest light heavyweights of all-time and a slew of interesting fights. In that certain time of year where the sport can be overwhelming and simply wash over us, it can be disenfranchising and remove us from our passion. What better way to put some sizzle back into things and figure out how to make some money on UFC Fight Night 142?

Straight Up Cash

Junior dos Santos (-150)

Normally, I open this part of the column with the caveat of explaining that regardless of whether I think it’s a great bet, I simply want to offer some main event analysis. In this case, I think -150 on dos Santos is a fantastic bet.

I understand oddsmakers and bettors shading dos Santos here. He has alternated wins and losses for six years and has shown vulnerability to opponents that was not at all present during his initial 9-0 UFC run. However, even if we admit that dos Santos has been immeasurably hurt and altered as a fighter due to his two brutal losses to Cain Velasquez, he has only been stopped by two other outstanding heavyweights in Alistair Overeem and Stipe Miocic. In fact, dos Santos is still younger than the typical average age of a Top-10 heavyweight. He may be a damaged fighter who is never going to rest atop the throne again, but that doesn’t mean he’s a waste, and I think it will show here.

The best thing you can say for Tuivasa is that he has home-country advantage. Yes, he hits hard, but he still failed to get an aged and dilapidated Andrei Arlovski out of the cage in his last outing. The former rugby standout is still most famous for drinking alcoholic concoctions out of someone’s shoe. He’s a straight-forward swinger with basic technique who makes up with power what he lacks in technique. I think that alone is enough to feel safe with dos Santos, especially with a -150 price.

Yes, “Cigano” lacks the durability he had six or seven years ago after the two vicious Velasquez beatings. At the same time, as we saw in the Blagoy Ivanov fight three months ago, he still knows how to box and bust up a sitting duck. On top of his superior handcraft, the Ivanov fight even showed that dos Santos has an awareness of his own mortality, as he relied even more heavily on counterpunching, out-jabbing and kicking. Given Tuivasa’s heavy-handed throwing and lumbering into striking contact, I fully expect dos Santos to keep his distance, out-jab and occasionally look to bust the Australian with heavy countering shots, especially his devastating uppercut, given Tuivasa’s tendency for charging at opponents with high hands. Even if we can all admit dos Santos isn’t the heavyweight kingpin many thought he was and that he’s been physically, immutably changed by some brutal battles, he’s still not a bad fighter, especially by the standards of this division. There are levels to this game, and I think we’ve got two players on a different layer. “Cigano” at -150 seems like a steal to me.

Straight Up Pass

Justin Willis (-120)

For many of the same reasons I explained with advocating for dos Santos, I’m here championing Willis’ opponent, Mark Hunt. Simply put, I just don’t understand this line at all.

Sure, Hunt is a .500 fighter who has been fighting professionally for over 20 years and admits he has brain damage. All of those things aren’t exactly incentives to think he’s going to win this fight. Yet, even into his brain-mushed 40s, Hunt has been able to have success, and we’re talking about a particular style match here. Alexey Oleynik tapping him out? Sure, Oleynik is primarily a crafty grappler who did exactly that. Curtis Blaydes roughing him up? He’s a powerhouse wrestler. Yet, it still wasn’t that long ago that he outlasted recent title challenger Derrick Lewis in a slugfest and ultimately knocked him out in the fourth round.

Hunt is a battleship; there may be engineering flaws and slights that give you a strategic advantage to sink him, but just firing shots at the hull isn’t going to do the job. Willis has beat absolutely middling opposition over his career -- that’s not his fault, this is often just part of being an MMA heavyweight -- and not necessarily been impressive in doing so. In his last fight, he crushed Chase Sherman, noted for his lack of striking defense, almost immediately and nearly finished him in the first round. He then proceeded to gas and let Sherman pick up steam late and most certainly win the final round against him.

The fact that Willis is a heavy-hitting southpaw isn’t going to faze a dude like Hunt, who is, unbelievably, 17 years removed from winning the K-1 World Grand Prix and was simply born to trade fisticuffs. Willis is not a natural combination puncher and doesn’t respond well on the counter. If Hunt checks him with one of those tricky little range-finding hooks, he’s going to get leveled, never mind the problem he has shown in dealing with opponent’s kicks. Given the line on this, this is a hard pass.

A Prop-ular Bet

Ben Nguyen-Wilson Reis Goes to Decision (-150)

This is a tricky category, because I think on a card with several established, known fighters and so many debutants or relatively unproven fighters, there’s a harsh divide. There’s a huge possibility to make some money of off a juicy prop or a huge way to misspend your cash. For instance: Do I think it’s possible that a 37-year-old, shopworn “Shogun” Mauricio Rua clunks Tyson Pedro with a wild haymaker or flexes his grappling and taps him as effortlessly as Ovince St. Preux did? Absolutely, but that’s not necessarily something I’d recommend betting on. Likewise, I think dos Santos and Hunt could both register knockouts, which have solid lines on them. On the flipside, there’s a lot of admittedly uninteresting props that I think have safer value. There’s an unsexy feature about betting on fights to go to decision, but I think that’s the way to go here.

Now, I think you could make this same bet with upstart Alexey Kunchenko and veteran Yushin Okami, which is a -170 price, but obviously, this is the slightly better line. I think in both cases it is oddsmakers and bettors favoring an up-and-comer against a veteran but trying to safeguard against the outcome. I get it. The reason I chose this one is that Kunchenko can be a surprising counterstriker and may surprise Okami, who doesn’t have the best chin in the world and is susceptible to being rocked, whereas this style matchup I think lines up better for the full 15 minutes.

I don’t disagree with Nguyen being the favorite. He’s never going to be UFC champion, but he has natural finishing ability. He can hurt people on the feet, and he can easily scramble, transition and finish on the floor. However, these are the things Reis is most insulated against. Yes, he has lost three in a row, but you need to consider how they went down. Demetrious Johnson ran over him and ended up tapping him in dramatic fashion because, well, he’s Demetrious Johnson; and Henry Cejudo surprised him with a brutal right hand and swarmed on him, largely set up by the fact Reis was desperate and knew he couldn’t buy a takedown.

Yet even in his most recent fight with John Moraga, Reis validates this bet. Moraga is a tremendous hitter, but Reis was ready for his punches, stayed standing and even won the last round. Nguyen is almost entirely offense with little defense, but he’s also a poor defensive wrestler, defending a ho-hum 66 percent of takedowns in the UFC. Nguyen is awesome in transitions and getting dominant position, but Reis is classically trained enough that he’s not going to give up his back in a wacky scramble the way Tim Elliott did. No doubt, Nguyen should have all the meaningful offense, but I just don’t think it’s enough to get Reis out of the cage before three rounds are up.

An Unprop-ular Bet

Anthony Rocco Martin-Jake Matthews Doesn’t Go the Distance (+150)

There are some difficulties passing up certain prop bets on a card like this. Like I said, there’s very real chances dos Santos and Hunt both register knockouts against vastly less skilled opponents. However, I don’t want to dissuade anybody from plunking some money down with their heart. What I do want to do is ensure that people are looking at competitive matchups and not drastically or unrealistically looking over what the bout is going to be.

First of all, it’s hard to get used to calling “Tony Martin” by “Anthony Rocco Martin” but after burning one of our previous parlays with his sound win over Ryan LaFlare, he has at least earned that right. Nonetheless, this is a prop that on the surface seems seductive but I think is savvy to avoid.

Both men are fantastic athletes, albeit in different ways. Martin is a grinding, top-heavy grappler, while Matthews has a bit more flair in the striking department and is more active with his submission game. With that said, I think one cancels out the other. It doesn’t really matter who you prefer in the contest, but rather the idea that if Martin wins, it’s going to be on account of smothering Matthews and wearing him down with so-so ground-and-pound and taking advantageous positions; and if Matthews wins, in spite of being the more dynamic fighter, he likely doesn’t have the submission chops to get Martin out of the cage the way someone like Leonardo Santos did.

The reason I pass on this is the fact that Matthews is so exciting that it would lead some people to bet this prop, while conversely, he’s the inferior wrestler and Martin, especially at a more suitable weight like 170 pounds, might have the muscle to exploit him from top position. I think ultimately we end up somewhere in the middle. The straight-up money line is almost even for a reason, but either way it goes, I don’t think Martin has the savvy or slickness to exploit Matthews on top, nor do I think Matthews, with his choppy yet explosive striking or his active bottom game, will be able to catch Martin. With Martin’s top dominance, there’s a thought that he can muscle Matthews and on the canvas. There’s also a thought that Matthews can catch him on the feet or on the floor. I really don’t see either happening.

An Accumulation Contemplation

Dos Santos (-150)
Hunt (+100)
Nguyen (-155)
Total Odds: +448

I really don’t think it gets any better than this. If we’re doing a classic three-team parlay on this card, you’re trying to choose between apples and oranges. As I expressed previously, you have vastly unproven talents who have -400 numbers on them and could easily be upset, and you’re dealing with more established veterans who might have a few flaws but are fighters we can get a handle on. In this case, we have a good handle on the best three bang-for-your-buck numbers on the card.

Dos Santos is being undervalued because he’s facing an undefeated fighter in his own territory, but there’s a massive technical disparity in their fighting styles that should lead “Cigano” to victory. The same thing goes for Hunt. Yes, he’s 44 years old and no longer has the incredible chin that helped launch him to fame during his K-1 career, but he’s facing a fighter who is still very raw and has faced absolutely no one like Hunt in his career. To throw Hunt into a parlay at a plus number is an absolute score.

As for Nguyen, I don’t think he’s going to finish Reis. At the same time, I think he will be thrilled by fighting back in Australia, his adopted home, and frankly, he’s so much more dynamic than the Brazilian. Nguyen at his best is able to rack up sudden knockouts and submissions, but I don’t think that’s going to happen here. Even if he ends up on his back on multiple occasions, he’s going to be the more active and damaging fighter, so if it goes the full 15 minutes that I’m forecasting, there should be no doubt in the judges’ minds. On top of that, these are the best prices you could possibly get on a card that is mostly filled with large yet unproven favorites facing either mediocre competition or local call-ups. This parlay is a testament to proverb “Trust what you know.”