Opinion: Holly Holm’s Uphill Climb

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Holly Holm begins her quest to reclaim the Ultimate Fighting Championship women’s bantamweight title this weekend when she headlines UFC on Fox 20 against Valentina Shevchenko. Although it feels like she’s within reach of nailing down another crack at the title, history tells us that the road to regaining what was is very unkind and a lot more challenging than one would expect. And this is despite the notion that the title is being tossed around like a game of hot potato at the current moment.

But why is it so difficult for fighters to regain gold?

The list of former champions who eventually regained the world title is awfully thin. Randy Couture mastered the art by regaining the title as both a heavyweight and light heavyweight, but very few others have come close. Georges St. Pierre, Matt Hughes, Tim Sylvia, Cain Velasquez and…yeah… that’s about it. Dominick Cruz never actually lost the title in a fight so he doesn’t belong on this list. Sylvia gets a pass because he was stripped for failing a drug test and then lost to Frank Mir in a fight for the vacant title.

For a sport that has been around for two decades, it’s remarkable that so few have been successful at regaining the title. As a matter of fact, it appears that once you lose the title, you fall out of the picture completely if you’re not given an immediate rematch. History explains this in very flat terms. Take a look at the former champions such as Johny Hendricks, Anthony Pettis, Renan Barao, Shogun Rua, Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida. Just as soon as they were knocked off of their perch, the free fall began. This isn’t to say that they will never compete for a world title again but the deck is certainly stacked against them.

With that, history doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Holly Holm. Fighters who try to get back on the horse after losing the title end up losing their very next fight (Anthony Pettis, Lyoto Machida, Brock Lesnar) or the one right after it (Renan Barao, Johny Hendricks, Junior dos Santos, Shogun Rua). For whatever reason, once the mojo is out of the bottle, it’s difficult to scoop it back in. Some do manage to find their way back into a title fight (Lyoto Machida) but they are often shot down.

Holm finds herself in a precarious position where she simply cannot afford to lose. With the women’s bantamweight division still taking form, a loss to Shevchenko will shove her right down the totem pole. Fortunately, she’s not all that far away considering that this is a division where it appears you can string a couple of wins together and find yourself right back in the thick of the title picture. It also helps if Ronda Rousey decides that making a return to the Octagon isn’t necessarily in the cards. If she does decide to come back, she’s either jumping the line or going to stall Holm out with a rematch.

But Holm is looking to defy those odds by facing Shevchenko, who is no walk in the park, and then hoping that she’ll get her name called ahead of Julianna Pena for a fight with Amanda Nunes. She has to move quickly and in devastating fashion. If she looks the slightest bit off, Pena will certainly get the next fight with Nunes. Holm is going to have to put together a powerful performance similar to the one that she had against Rousey. The only problem is that Holm hasn’t looked all that great in all of her UFC fights outside of the Rousey demolition.

Against Rousey, she took full advantage of her boxing deficiencies to counterstrike her into unconsciousness. But against Raquel Pennington, Marion Reneau and even Miesha Tate, Holm was tentative and more of a points fighter than one who looks to put a swift end to her opponents. And with somebody as skilled on the feet as Shevchenko, she’s certainly going to have her hands full.

Chances are that if Holm beats Shevchenko by decision, she’ll be placed into a fight with Tate or a returning Rousey. Her only real chance to jump into a title fight is by flattening Shevchenko while there is an opening. Tate is benched with a broken nose, Rousey has said nothing and Pena didn’t exactly set the world on fire when she beat Cat Zingano (although any true MMA fan knows that Pena was impressive). Fans like knockouts and Holm has the ability to separate a fighter from their senses. Considering that the UFC is in the business of selling exciting fights, a battle between Nunes and Holm could be a tantalizing dish.

But it all starts now and Holm must do whatever she can to offset history.

Andreas Hale is the editorial content director of 2DopeBoyz.com, co-host of the boxing, MMA and pro wrestling podcast “The Corner” and a regular columnist for Sherdog.com. You can follow on Twitter for his random yet educated thoughts on combat sports, music, film and popular culture.