Preview: UFC Fight Night 238 ‘Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev’

Flyweights

#12 FLW | Steve Erceg (11-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. #9 FLW | Matt Schnell (16-7, 6-5 UFC)

ODDS: Erceg (-325), Schnell (+260)

Erceg’s breakout in 2023 came as a surprise, to say the least. Erceg was rightfully touted as a potential UFC signing heading into the year, but Australia’s “Astro Boy” was far from a guaranteed success if he got there. Large for the division but lacking athleticism, Erceg’s success centered around a crafty grappling game that could be hard to get to against better competition. When Erceg got tabbed for a late-notice debut against David Dvorak in June, the Australian put together the best performance of his career, showing an impressively thoughtful and effective striking game to go along with those skills on the mat, coasting his way to a clear decision win. A November victory against Alessandro Costa went much the same, though the Brazilian did land some effective offense of his own. Now, Erceg is poised to try and make his charge up the ladder with a tough test against Schnell.

Schnell has gone through plenty of ups and downs since signing with the UFC in 2016, though “Danger” has remained in consistently entertaining fights the entire way through. At first, that was to Schnell’s detriment. While blessed with finishing ability in every phase of the fight, Schnell’s UFC run has exposed a clear lack of durability that the Louisianian had to learn about the hard way, charging into quick finishes thanks to his overzealousness. Schnell learned to adjust, leveraging his long frame to fight behind a more patient striking style while breaking out some of his excellent grappling, as needed. That led to a run where Schnell was at his peak effectiveness, but he has struggled to blend thoughtfulness and aggression since his 2022 fight with Brandon Royval, which saw him go back to his brawling ways and charge into another quick loss. He survived a memorable back-and-forth war against Su Mudaerji that July but went back to his more patient ways against Matheus Nicolau and accomplished little before getting knocked out in an admittedly tough matchup. This should be a fascinating fight no matter what approach Schnell takes. Even if this is a slow-paced kickboxing match, Schnell being one of the rare flyweights to match Erceg’s length makes for an interesting dynamic. The bet is that Schnell can stay ahead as the better athlete, whether or not he uses his aggression in the process. The pick is Schnell via second-round submission.

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Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Petrino vs. Pedro
Mokaev vs. Perez
Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan
Erceg vs. Schnell
The Prelims