Strikeforce ‘Barnett vs. Kharitonov’ Preview

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Light Heavyweights
Muhammed Lawal (7-1, 2-1 SF) vs. Roger Gracie (4-0, 2-0 SF)

The Matchup: “King Mo” looked like a world-beater in taking the Strikeforce light heavyweight title from the talented Gegard Mousasi, using his excellent wrestling and physical style in a grueling five-round match. Since that April 2010 signature win, however, he hit a serious speed bump, gassing terribly against Rafael Cavalcante before losing via technical knockout; Lawal simply ran out of energy in trying to take down “Feijao.” This fight is a compelling litmus test for the finished product Lawal hopes to someday become, as it pits him against the exceptionally talented Gracie, one of the world’s best grapplers. Thus far, Gracie has made a successful transition into MMA.

Unlike most of his storied family members who preceded him into the sport, Gracie has developed a bit of a standup game. His jab is coming along nicely, and his insanely dangerous submissions make foes reluctant to plant him on his back. Since that is Lawal’s bread and butter, something has to give should these two hit the canvas.

Gracie’s career will probably go as far as his standup develops. It will be key in this fight, as well, especially if he can land shots while Lawal tries to close the gap and tie up. However, while Gracie is a fantastic submission specialist, Lawal’s options are not necessarily limited to taking him down and dodging submissions. One of the best ways to soften up a jiu-jitsu ace comes in getting the fight deep, banging him around on the feet and then taking it to the mat, where fatigue and sweat make submission attempts a far more nebulous course of action.

Lawal will bounce in and out scoring potshots, eschewing a takedown in the opening minutes to gauge how much damage Gracie can do standing. Lawal’s takedown shot is fast and well-timed, but he will save it for the right moment, once he has nailed Gracie with a few standing strikes. Once he gets Gracie to the mat, he will rely mostly on defensive positioning and well-timed shots to the body and head to keep his foe from clamping down and setting up a submission or sweep.

Lawal is a phenomenal wrestler with a great base, and the battle to dictate where the grappling phase of the match goes should be a fascinating one.

The Pick: Lawal is too strong to be denied, and he will ride out a unanimous decision as he closes hard down the stretch, with Gracie tiring, battered and unable to finish the fight with one of his submissions.

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