Preview: UFC 269 ‘Oliveira vs. Poirier’

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Flyweights

#7 BW | Cody Garbrandt (12-4, 7-4 UFC) vs. #6 FLW | Kai Kara France (22-9, 5-2 UFC)

ODDS: Garbrandt (-135), France (+115)

It is unclear what to make of Garbrandt at this point. It has now been nearly five years since his stunning bantamweight title victory over Dominick Cruz. While Garbrandt had lived up to the hype as a top prospect over the previous two years, it was a shock to see him flummox Cruz with his hand speed on his way to a clear decision victory. It was the type of win that made Garbrandt look like a potential pillar of the UFC going forward, but it instead led to his feud with T.J. Dillashaw, which may have derailed his career. Their first fight was a clear example of the positives and negatives that Garbrandt brings to the table. After Garbrandt nearly scored a knockout in the first round, Dillashaw toyed with his reactions and returned the favor shortly thereafter, knocking out the Ohio native in the middle of the second frame. Their immediate rematch told the same story, only quicker; with all of his reads established, Dillashaw made short work of Garbrandt in a fight that picked up where their first one left off. By the time of Garbrandt’s attempted bounce-back against Pedro Munhoz, “No Love” had fully descended into meme status with his willingness to sell out on aggression at his own expense. The Munhoz fight quickly devolved into a wild brawl that saw Garbrandt once again get blasted for an early knockout. After a year-plus layoff, Garbrandt seemed to channel that aggression in much healthier fashion against Raphael Assuncao, eventually knocking out the longtime contender in highlight-reel fashion. However, his last bout—a main event against Rob Font in May—raised some concern that Garbrandt may have overcorrected. While he never lost his cool, he was the much less effective fighter over 25 minutes, seeming hesitant to pull the trigger as Font poured on his offense. Still just 30 years old, Garbrandt has the natural talent to turn things around at any moment, though his mental issues make him hard to trust. The reaction to the Font loss has been for Garbrandt to make his long-teased move down to flyweight, which could turn out to revitalize his career or be the end of a prolonged fall.

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Garbrandt’s first challenge at 125 pounds will be France, who provides a solid benchmark as to whether or not he can reclaim contender status. France is not the elite-level athlete that is typical of the UFC’s flyweight division, but that is about all the Kiwi has going against him. He otherwise has a solid boxing game with enough power to provide the occasional brutal knockout. “Don’t Blink” has had his issues against the quicker and more dynamic opponents he has faced, such as Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval, but he is rarely out of a fight. His most recent bout saw Rogerio Bontorin outwrestle him for the better part of a round, only to get knocked out as soon as both fighters were back on their feet. However, for as untrustworthy as Garbrandt has been, he almost has to be the favorite here as long as the weight cut goes well. He still has a huge speed advantage against France moving down a division, and his wrestling should also be a much more effective safety valve in this particular matchup if Garbrandt chooses to become more of a bully against a smaller opponent. There is always the risk that he gets finished, but the pick is Garbrandt via second-round knockout.

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