Preview: UFC on Fox 16 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’

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Lightweights

Edson Barboza (15-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. Paul Felder (10-0, 2-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Established action fighter Barboza and the rising Felder meet in what promises to be a lightweight barnburner. Barboza’s potential has never been in question, but every time he gets on a roll, he runs into a setback. In the most recent example, a two-fight winning streak ended in a lackluster decision loss to Michael Johnson. Felder has been impressive since debuting in October, and he finished Danny Castillo with a spinning backfist back in January. The winner should get a booking with an elite opponent.

Felder is a slick striker; more specifically, he has built his game around the concept of anti-wrestling. He works at range behind a probing jab, a steady diet of low kicks and smooth footwork, but he really excels at throwing same-time counters. That is, he baits his opponent into attacking and then intercepts him with a crisp straight right, a right uppercut or a stepping knee. The last is Felder’s specialty, and it is what makes him so lethal against wrestlers since the knees often catch opponents who try to change levels in the pocket. Quick spinning kicks and backfists complement the more meat-and-potatoes pieces of Felder’s arsenal. In addition to his striking repertoire, Felder is a nasty clinch fighter with a strong double-collar tie and sharp knees and elbows. Takedown defense is a real strength, and Felder excels at not only fighting off his opponent’s attempts but doing serious damage with elbows, short punches and knees in the process. We know little about his grappling repertoire, but he has been competent in brief stretches.

Barboza is an incredible athlete blessed with outstanding speed and power, and he is a talented striker, to boot. His crushing kicks are the centerpiece of his game, particularly his devastating low kicks, but he is lethal at every level. He works behind a crisp, consistent jab at range, and he complements his kicks with potent punching combinations. If there is a weakness to Barboza’s striking game, it is defense and a serious allergy to pressure. He does not consistently move his head; he drops his hands after he throws; and he is quite vulnerable to opponents who are willing to risk eating his shots to counter him. Otherwise, Barboza is essentially a pure striker, with outstanding takedown defense and skill in scrambling back to his feet but little else.

THE PICK: If this turns into a pure striking matchup at range, it is hard not to see Barboza as the favorite given his edges in speed and power. Stylistically, however, I think Felder’s skill on the counter makes him a difficult task for the hittable Barboza to handle. Every opponent who has committed to countering has been able to repeatedly tag the Brazilian, and Felder is particularly good in that phase. The pick is Felder by decision.

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