Preview: UFC on ESPN 34 ‘Luque vs. Muhammad 2’

Welterweights

NR | Miguel Baeza (10-2, 3-2 UFC) vs. NR | Andre Fialho (14-4, 0-1 UFC)

BETUS ODDS: Baeza (-170), Fialho (+140)

Baeza is still a promising talent, but he could do well to rebound from a rough 2021 run. Baeza had a war with Victor Reyna to earn a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, which was an impressive bit of business for “Caramel Thunder.” Prior to that, Baeza had impressed as a showy range striker but was never particularly in a position to be tested. Baeza’s 2020 campaign served as his breakout in the UFC, winning a war with Matt Brown and then getting a showcase performance against Takashi Sato. However, 2021 saw Baeza go winless. His narrow loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio was an underrated war and ranked among the best fights of the year, and his November bout against Kalinn Williams was relatively even—until “Khaos” suddenly scored a late knockout. Based on that history, Baeza’s bout against Fialho should at least be entertaining, win or lose. Portugal’s Fialho made his late-notice debut in January; it was the culmination of a solid few years of work, as he put together a strong resume in multiple promotions, including Bellator MMA and the Professional Fighters League. That debut, a respectable performance in a decision loss to Michel Pereira, more or less told the story of Fialho’s career. He is at his best early as a powerful pressure fighter but tends to run out of effective ideas over time. Fialho is far from a glass cannon, but once opponents adjust to what he brings to the table, any attempts to mix things up may look fine technically but do not typically lead to any sort of success. That figures to be the dynamic here. Fialho has a good chance at just walking down his opponent and catching him cold for a knockout, but over time, Baeza should eventually settle into a groove as a range striker and keep him at bay, particularly since the American figures to have a cardio advantage. This is more or less a coinflip, but the pick is Baeza via decision.

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