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Light Heavyweights

NR | Isaac Villanueva (17-11, 0-2 UFC) vs. NR | Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-4, 0-3 UFC)

ODDS: Villanueva (-140), Castro (+120)

When Castro earned a contract via the Brazilian edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, there was some hope that he could play spoiler in the light heavyweight division. His win over John Allan was by far the best of his career, but “Mamute” showed enough grappling skill in a division mostly devoid of it that his style, in theory, could provide enough of a change-up to catch some opponents. In practice, things have not gone particularly well, to say the least. Fights against Alonzo Menifield, Eryk Anders and Paul Craig all ended in first-round losses. Castro has been both too plodding to defend himself on the feet and not durable enough to absorb the blows that he takes, so the first hard shot his opponent lands has typically led to a finish shortly thereafter. He assumedly gets his last shot at a UFC win here against Villanueva, whose lack of Octagon success has likely put him in the same boat. Villanueva is an unathletic brawler who has put together a solid regional career, but he has not gotten over any sort of hump in the UFC. He has been game, but moving up to heavyweight for a late-notice debut against Chase Sherman was a tough ask, and Villanueva’s last bout against Jordan Wright ended in a cut stoppage loss before it ever truly got going. This should be over quickly, as the strengths and weaknesses between these two match up cleanly and should lead to a one-sided result: Either Castro gets this to the ground quickly and taps out Villanueva, or Villanueva blasts Castro for a knockout before things get that far. The pick is Moreira via first-round submission, but this is a coinflip.

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