Preview: UFC Fight Night 195 ‘Ladd vs. Dumont’

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Lightweights

NR | Jim Miller (32-16, 21-15 UFC) vs. NR | Erick Gonzalez (14-5, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Miller (-210), Gonzalez (+175)

Miller continues his quest to stay ahead of Donald Cerrone on the UFC’s all-time appearances leaderboard. This fight will mark Miller’s 38th trip to the Octagon, as he marks his first fight at 38 years of age. Given all that time and experience, Miller is still surprisingly effective, even after some rough stretches threatened to end his career. He has consistently managed to right the ship, whether it was discovering that he had been fighting with an undiagnosed case of Lyme disease or simply by just slowly moving down the ladder until he found his late-career level of viability. In the last few years, Miller has settled into an entertaining niche in the middle of the UFC’s deep lightweight division, whether it is serving as the most veteran of all tests for rising prospects or occasionally proving that he is still ahead of his peers, as he did in his 58-second win over Clay Guida in 2019. There are now some consistent cracks in Miller’s game, however, mostly focused around his fading gas tank. He can still put up a game effort for three rounds, but there is a clear pattern where he either scores a quick finish or suffers a clear decision loss. This time around, Miller takes on a promotional newcomer in Gonzalez, who gets the UFC shot for which he has long campaigned.

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“The Ghost Pepper” has put together a solid regional resume, with most of his success coming in the Combate Global organization. While willing to scrap, Gonzalez has done well by having the change-up of a solid wrestling and clinch game that has been enough to control most regional opposition. While youth is obviously on Gonzalez’s side here, he does seem to have just about the wrong game to take a win from Miller. The New Jerseyan is just as comfortable throwing hands, and if either man looks to wrestle, Miller is the much more capable fighter of turning that into a submission finish. If Gonzalez survives the early going, he could outpace Miller for a decision win, but he seems set to jump right into the teeth of the most dangerous parts of the veteran’s game. The pick is Miller via first-round submission.

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