Preview: UFC 260 ‘Miocic vs. Ngannou’

Bantamweight

NR | Sean O'Malley (12-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. NR | Thomas Almeida (22-4, 5-4 UFC)

ODDS: O'Malley (-320), Almeida (+260)

He is still an elite prospect, but it will be interesting to see how O’Malley rebounds from the first loss of his career. O’Malley was one of the standouts from the first season of Dana White’s Contender Series thanks to both his talent and charisma, and the UFC immediately put its promotional weight behind him, featuring him prominently right out of the gate. For his part, O’Malley brought an exciting fighting style with his loose and movement-heavy striking, though his lack of defense and questionable wrestling made it clear that a prospect loss was on the horizon. That nearly came against Andre Soukhamthath in 2019, and then O’Malley vanished for the better part of two years. In addition to a foot injury suffered in the fight, O’Malley was kept on the shelf due to USADA issues stemming from a tainted supplement. In the moment, it felt like the layoff could have derailed O’Malley’s career, but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise, as his return saw him show off the best form of his career. Now a much sharper knockout artist, O’Malley obliterated Jose Alberto Quinonez and Eddie Wineland to set up a potential breakthrough performance against Marlon Vera at UFC 252 in August. Instead, things went about as poorly as possible. Beyond the result, a first-round finish in favor of Vera, O’Malley suffered another foot injury, which raises some long-term concerns about his durability. Add in that O’Malley has handled the loss quite terribly, and the vibes are certainly negative around someone who was considered a potential star just a few months ago. At any rate, O’Malley needs a win here against Almeida.

Almeida should serve as a bit of a cautionary tale for O’Malley, as the Brazilian shows that even the best prospects in the world can sometimes fall well short of expectations. UFC 189 is considered one of the best pay-per-view cards in promotional history, and Almeida kicked off the show with a bang, obliterating Brad Pickett with a flying knee and looking like a guaranteed future title contender. After one more win over Anthony Birchak to cap 2015, “Thominhas” looked undeniable. He had beaten every opponent put in front of him and finished all but one of them inside the distance. Heading into his 2016 main event against Cody Garbrandt, Almeida was the clear A-side and figured to be in line for his inevitable title shot with a victory. Instead, that was where his career went south. Garbrandt nuked Almeida within three minutes and basically laid bare the major issues with his style. At his best, Almeida is a beautiful buzzsaw of offense, capable of chaining together innovative combinations of strikes with impressive speed and creativity. However, beyond Almeida being a slow starter, such an offense-leaning style leaves him quite open on defense—an issue that he simply does not have the durability to survive against the hardest hitters in the UFC. A January 2018 loss to Rob Font seemed to close Almeida’s championship window in the moment, and the situation has not changed much in the ensuing three years. Eye injuries kept Almeida out of action until October, which resulted in a flat performance in a loss against Jonathan Martinez. That fight was up a division at featherweight, so hopefully, a lighter and less rusty version of Almeida looks better in this one.

This would have been a troublesome style matchup for a prime Almeida, so it seems like a clear bounce-back spot for O’Malley. His sharp and accurate striking should find Almeida’s chin sooner rather than later, particularly since O’Malley clearly starts fast and his counterpart does quite the opposite. If Almeida manages to survive to the later rounds, this could get interesting, but his doing so would be a surprise. His best chance for a win might be if O’Malley’s injury issues pop up at some point during the bout. The pick is O’Malley via first-round knockout.

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