Middleweights
David Branch (22-4) vs. Jared Cannonier (10-4)Advertisement
One of the big losers of the constant UFC 230 reshuffling was Branch, who is one of the more underrated fighters on the roster and missed out on a big opportunity to prove himself. There was some concern that the UFC was paying for everything but the Brooklyn, New York, native’s prime. Branch washed out of the UFC as a one-dimensional grappler back in 2011, only to mature into a two-division champion for the World Series of Fighting before making the jump back to the UFC once that money dried up. Branch’s return has gone fairly well. A decision win over Krzysztof Jotko was ugly and unmemorable, but Branch put together a solid performance in a loss against Luke Rockhold before scoring a blistering knockout of Thiago Santos in his last fight. Branch’s mixture of patient grappling and striking seems to be clicking on all cylinders, and he was lined up for a potential statement win in a fight against Ronaldo Souza. When the card shuffled, Souza was paired with Chris Weidman, while Branch was pitted against Cannonier.
Middleweight marks Cannonier’s third weight class during his UFC stay thus far. Perhaps this is where the Alaskan finally turns the corner. Cannonier was an undersized striker at heavyweight, so it was unsurprising when he cut down to 205 pounds for the third fight of his UFC career. At light heavyweight, things went perfectly fine, even if Cannonier hit the point of diminishing returns in short order. A fun win over Ion Cutelaba led to the UFC immediately rushing Cannonier into a fight with Glover Teixeira, which only served to highlight his complete lack of takedown defense. While Cannonier managed to rebound a bit, he still hit a ceiling. Jan Blachowicz kept Cannonier at bay with solid, fundamental striking, while Dominick Reyes was an athlete who blew Cannonier out of the water. Cannonier was still a bit small for a light heavyweight. When combined with the two losses, I understand why he made the cut down, but it is still an odd fit. Being a striker who depends on his speed is probably the worst type of archetype to move down a weight class. Maybe Cannonier knows something that is not easily obvious.
This seems to be set up for a Branch win. Admittedly, Branch is not the fastest middleweight, but he is also patient and defensively sound to the point that I doubt Cannonier will even get the opportunity. Beyond being the superior striker, Branch should dominate this fight if he takes it to the ground, which is how I expect it to play out, given that he has been more than willing to grind out a win in the past. Branch favors control over going for the submission, and Cannonier has shown to be a solid survivor on the ground, so I will say it goes all 15 minutes, even if it lacks drama. The pick is Branch via decision.
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