Preview: UFC 191 ‘Johnson vs. Dodson 2’

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Light Heavyweights

Anthony Johnson (19-5, 10-5 UFC) vs Jimi Manuwa (15-1, 4-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two powerful strikers meet in a struggle for contendership in a division that badly needs contenders.

Johnson has had an interesting journey, to say the least. From welterweight to light heavyweight, he has grown in both size and skill. “Rumble” has always been a destructive hitter, but his training under the watchful eye of Henri Hooft and the Blackzilians has transformed him into a more patient, more calculated and overall more effective striker than ever before. However, despite an early knockdown, Johnson’s most recent bout saw him worn out and eventually submitted by Daniel Cormier. The loss was poignantly reminiscent of Johnson’s defeat at the hands of Cormier’s former stablemate, Josh Koscheck, some six years ago; and it was a stark reminder that some things do not change easily, if at all.

Manuwa is six years Johnson’s elder, but he has not been fighting as long or as often. His first real step up in competition came in 2014, when Manuwa was knocked out by Alexander Gustafsson, widely considered the second-best light heavyweight on the roster until he was knocked out himself in January -- by Johnson.

Johnson remains a pathologically aggressive fighter, but he has adopted more of a counter striker’s mindset since joining Hooft, which helps him to reserve energy even as he walks down his opponents. Johnson uses stance-switching footwork to keep his adversaries trapped against the fence and in his sights, and when they react to the pressure by attacking, he will parry or slip before countering with a thunderous right hand or left high kick. Johnson’s cagecraft enables him to stuff takedowns with ease in open space, but opponents who take control of the Octagon have consistently managed to drag Johnson down in prolonged wrestling exchanges.

Manuwa is much the same, except that he prefers to create openings with a variety of feints and short combinations. He is extremely dangerous with both his left hand and his left leg, and both limbs together -- the left hook setting up the left kick and vice-versa -- make him an offensive force to be feared. However, Manuwa’s preference for leads keeps him more confined to his pressuring style than Johnson, who can fall back on a wide array of counters to keep opponents at bay.

THE ODDS: Johnson (-500), Manuwa (+385)

THE PICK: Like many striking battles, this bout will most likely be decided by direction of movement. Whichever fighter manages to force the other backward will own the day. Manuwa could find success against the cage, where the combination of his bodyweight and a selection of knees could chip away at Johnson’s suspect stamina. However, I expect “Rumble” to use his accurate counters to keep Manuwa at arm’s length, where his crushing power and superior footwork should give him the advantage. Johnson takes it by first-round knockout.

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