Preview: UFC Fight Night 159 ‘Rodriguez vs. Stephens’

Women’s Strawweights

Alexa Grasso (11-2) vs. Carla Esparza (14-6)

ODDS: Grasso (-125), Esparza (+105)

Has Grasso finally turned the corner? She burst onto the Invicta Fighting Championships scene as an undefeated prospect in 2014, and about two years later, she was making her much-hyped UFC debut, obviously being targeted as one of the UFC’s key stars for its expansion into Mexico. However, unlike someone like Yair Rodriguez, who hit the ground running, Grasso’s run has been quite frustrating and inconsistent. The UFC almost immediately started following the Paige VanZant blueprint, down to having Grasso face Felice Herrig in her second UFC bout, only to find that “Lil Bulldog” had greatly improved in the past two years. That fight against Herrig -- a clear decision loss -- exposed one of the major gaps in Grasso’s game. For all of her talent as a boxer, she does not have much overall feel for what is happening in the fight, concentrating on avoiding damage rather than winning exchanges and using a fairly rote array of techniques. From there, it continued to be rough sailing. While she got a narrow win over Randa Markos during the UFC’s last foray into Mexico, that was followed by Tatiana Suarez taking down Grasso and tapping her without much trouble. After a long injury layoff, it was a pleasant surprise to see Grasso absolutely dominate in a win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Grasso suddenly looked like a much quicker, sharper and natural striker, battering the former title challenger and getting what was easily the most impressive victory of her career. That was a huge step for Grasso to prove that she is still a prospect to watch, but now she looks to make the step up to true contender, as Esparza should be a tough out.

Esparza remains one of the more underrated fighters on the UFC roster. When the UFC launched the strawweight division, Esparza was the favorite to win the inaugural title tournament and cashed in on that hype, running through a raw Rose Namajunas to become the promotion’s first champion at 115 pounds. However, any hopes of Esparza being a well-respected champion were quickly dashed by two factors: an unflattering portrayal on “The Ultimate Fighter” that did not win her many fans and the rise of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who completely obliterated Esparza in her first title defense. From there, Esparza has been effective but not particularly exciting. She has done well to develop a competent striking game, but the bread and butter of her fighting style is still her excellent chain wrestling, which is probably the best in the division for anyone not named Suarez. Given that her losses to Markos and Claudia Gadelha were both nip-tuck affairs, there is an alternate universe where Jedrzejczyk and Suarez are her only UFC losses, so Esparza could easily get right back in title contention with an impressive showing here.

This is a pretty clear fight in terms of the breakdown. Esparza has the clear advantage if she manages to take things to the mat. While Grasso has a solid ground game, Esparza’s persistent wrestling puts her at an elite level that the Mexican up-and-comer cannot match. However, if Esparza fails to get her takedown game going, this bout is all Grasso. Again, Esparza has done well to make things competent on the feet, but Grasso is both sharp, confident and capable of laying an absolute beating on the “Cookie Monster” in a pure striking match. Her takedown defense might be much-improved given the progress that she has shown in other areas, but it has stuck out as a weakness and Esparza is probably closer to Suarez than any of the opponents who have been unable to take down Grasso. This could be the fight where Grasso makes the jump, but the pick is Esparza via decision.

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