Preview: UFC 293 ‘Adesanya vs. Strickland’

Heavyweights

#7 HW | Alexander Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) vs. #6 HW | Tai Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC)

ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)

Two heavyweights look to stay just relevant enough to possibly sneak into the title picture in this interesting co-main event. Tuivasa surely got rushed up the ladder as part of the UFC’s push to try and find Australian stars back in 2018, but it is easy to see why the promotion went that route. An affable fan favorite, “Bam Bam” has a connection with the fanbase even beyond his tendency to land big knockouts. After he got turned back by Junior dos Santos, the worry was that the UFC’s aggressive matchmaking had ruined Tuivasa thanks to his subsequent losing streak, capped by a submission loss to Sergey Spivak in a fight the Aussie was clearly set up to win. However, Tuivasa added a bare minimum of patience to his game that paid huge dividends, leading him to five straight knockout wins and potential contender status. For the time being, Tuivasa has hit a clear ceiling—Ciryl Gane’s fluid striking made for a poor stylistic matchup and Sergei Pavlovich figured to come out on top in a quick brawl—but as a 30-year-old heavyweight, there is still another decade or so for him to be on the right side of some coinflips and win his way to a title shot. A victory against Volkov would be nice, and this should be a fascinating test to see exactly where the Russian stands in 2023.

A former Bellator MMA champion, Volkov came to the UFC in 2016 and hit the ground running as a potential contender, even if his game was not all that dynamic. A 6-foot-7 monolith, “Drago” could usually lean on his durability and outlast his opponents even without always maximizing his gigantic frame. Volkov probably would have gotten a title shot with a win over Derrick Lewis in 2018 but instead ate a third-round knockout, and he has struggled to get over the final hump to contention from there. Still, the Russian looked every bit the part of a divisional stalwart up until a rough few fights spanning 2021 and 2022—a run that raised some concerns that a hard career might finally be taking its toll on Volkov. It was a particular shock to see Tom Aspinall take Volkov down and submit him without much issue in March 2022. However, Volkov has rebounded and looked in much better form, though it is still unclear how well those gains will carry forward. Jairzinho Rozenstruik had an inconsistent style that Volkov figured to exploit, and his win over Alexandr Romanov was more notable for the latter’s poor performance than anything else. That leaves open the possibility that Tuivasa can march Volkov down for a knockout and prove that the Russian’s recent success was a bit of a mirage. With that said, Volkov has a style historically built on slowly taking apart heavyweight brawlers, which feels like the surest bet here. The pick is Volkov via decision.

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Adesanya vs. Strickland
Volkov vs. Tuivasa
Kape vs. dos Santos
Tafa vs. Lane
Turkalj vs. Pedro
The Prelims