UFC 113 Preview: The Main Card

Enough ink and kilobytes have been spent on the controversial decision reigning light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida was given over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua last October, and that alone is reason enough to count down the seconds to the UFC’s return to the Bell Centre in Montreal this Saturday.

If the UFC 113 rematch lives up to the 25-minute seminar on the art of war that was the first fight, we’ll all be lucky violence junkies. Regardless, the UFC is hedging its bets with a main card lineup designed to meet the needs of fans casual and hardcore alike.

For all the fans of Amish beards and YouTube out there, Kimbo Slice returns to the Octagon against converted NFL lineman Matt Matrione in a bout sure to please anyone who thought TUF 10 needed to resolve its lingering plot lines. Reality TV drama thankfully takes a backseat to the title eliminator bout between welterweights Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley, both of whom have already taken the fight to that most dangerous of trashtalking battlegrounds -- the Internet. Obligatory Fraggle Rock reference aside, you need to see these fights but not before you get some analysis so manly it makes manly things look less manly than previously thought.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua

The Breakdown: There was just a tiny bit of controversy surrounding the unanimous decision incumbent light heavyweight champion Machida won over Rua. In order to prevent mass rioting that would leave the country in flames, the UFC has wisely decided to rematch arguably the two best light heavyweights the sport has ever seen.

Putting the contentious judging aside, what made the first fight so entertaining was Rua showing off a level of tactical brilliance previously unseen from him. He used kicks to dictate distance and eliminate counterpunching opportunities, which was a strategic masterstroke by a fighter once known for the MMA-on-PCP style he picked up during his time with the Chute Boxe team. Considering Rua and almost everyone with Internet access staunchly believe he won the first fight, odds are he’s going to come out with the same strategy and force Machida to do something he has never had to do -- find a different way to win.

Looking back on the first fight, Machida did get the better of Rua in close quarters and that is where this fight will likely be won or lost. Machida isn’t going to stand at range and roll the dice on a judges’ decision all over again. While the common belief is that he relies entirely on darting in and out to confuse his opponents, the fact is that Machida is one of the best clinch fighters in the sport. Adept at digging punches to the body from the Greco-Roman clinch and quickly switching to the Thai plum for knee strikes, Machida can take away the one effective weapon Rua has against him and turn this into an entirely different fight. Of course Rua is hardly a soft touch in the clinch, as no one with a Chute Boxe pedigree is to be taken lightly when knees are involved.

The stalemate between these two seems to continue anywhere this fight goes. That includes the one place it never went to the first time around -- the floor. While neither fighter typically goes for takedowns, Machida has flashed serious wrestling ability before, most notably when he tossed Tito Ortiz to the floor like he was controlling gravity. From top control Machida has proven adept with both submissions and ground-and-pound while Rua’s guard is undoubtedly the most underappreciated part of his nearly unparalleled offensive arsenal.

A mat battle between these two would be the most interesting display of grappling the division has seen in some time. Whether it happens depends largely on Machida. Keeping in mind that the backbone of Machida’s game is disrupting his opponent’s timing, something he failed to do against Rua, it seems likely that he’ll at least test the clinch waters rather than let Rua implode his guts for another 25 minutes. Should Machida make the mistake of trying to beat Rua from afar again, I just can’t see him finding the rhythm that eluded him in the first fight.

The belt may be around Machida’s waist, but he enters this fight with far more to prove than Rua. Anyone with a functioning optic nerve knows that no robbery took place when Machida’s hand was raised at UFC 104, but the fact remains that Rua made him look utterly mortal. It is Rua who enters this fight with a proven strategy and Machida who has to admit to himself that the usual game plan isn’t going to cut it. There is no doubting that Machida’s mind can resolve the equation, but no one seems certain of whether or not he’s even willing to concede that there is an equation to be resolved.

The Bottom Line: All great tacticians are islands unto themselves. Machida is no different. I don’t doubt for a second that he is cooking up a thesis in his head on how to beat Rua, and that is why he’s going to win this fight. Expecting Rua to have the perfect counter for a strategy he can’t possibly see coming seems unrealistic at best and foolish at worst. He’ll have plenty of welts to show for it, but Machida will walk --maybe limp -- away with a unanimous decision win and, more importantly, vindication for him and all his musty-breathed brethren.