Picking & Grinning: UFC 137 Main Card

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Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC 137 “Penn vs. Diaz” main card, which airs live on pay-per-view at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Saturday from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas.

Welterweights
B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Tomasz Marciniak: I expect this to be a stand-up battle with maybe Penn mixing in some wrestling. Diaz has polished his style a lot, as he and his brother are going head-to-head with Andre Ward. Penn definitely has the boxing to contend with Diaz, and he has actually proved his mettle in high-profile fights, whereas Diaz did not look all that hot against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos or Paul Daley. If Penn can utilize some wrestling to take down Diaz and hold him there, he should have a relatively smooth ride to a victory on points. If he elects to “just scrap,” it is a tossup, but I’ll side with the Hawaiian.

Brian Knapp: Penn will benefit here from fighting consistently better competition over the last several years. While Diaz was away taking on the Muhsin Corbbreys and Thomas Dennys of the world, Penn was in the Octagon locking horns with Georges St. Pierre, Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez and Frankie Edgar. That is not to say Diaz is not an elite fighter -- I believe he is -- but he will have to step his game several notches if he wants to take out Penn, especially in a three-round fight. I see Penn countering effectively, scoring with takedowns and earning a unanimous decision in a memorable encounter.

Jordan Breen: Diaz has recently needed to dig deep in order to beat the likes of Santos and Daley. Penn is a superior technical fighter to both. Penn can jab and counter with his right hand on the feet, exposing Diaz’s lack of head movement. He also has the flexibility to take down Diaz and try to work on top. It’s unfortunate this is a 15-minute fight, since athletes of this caliber should be going 25 and it would give Diaz a better chance at pulling out a late win. This time around, give me Penn on points.

Tristen Critchfield: Regardless of people’s disappointment that UFC 137 will not feature a Georges St. Pierre-Carlos Condit main event, this is still a solid way to end a fight card. On the feet, Diaz’s volume striking might not work that well against Penn’s crisp boxing. Diaz does have the reach advantage, but if the fight moves to the ground, the Hawaiian’s jiu-jitsu can overcome Diaz’s ability to threaten off of his back. This will be a back-and-forth scrap, with both fighters’ strengths being somewhat similar. Penn is slightly better in each area, however, and, as long as he is adequately motivated and in shape, he takes a decision.

Heavyweights
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

Lutfi Sariahmed: When breaking down this fight, I focused on the UFC Live 4 card in Pittsburgh, where both fighters won via knockout over Pat Barry and Christian Morecraft, respectively. Of course, no two knockouts are the same, and, after looking at those two knockouts, I’m taking Kongo to derail Mitrione’s hot start. For all of Barry’s flaws, one thing you have to respect him for is his power. Barry can throw hands and kicks with the best of them. He even seemed to knock Kongo out cold before the Frenchman basically came back from the dead to beat him. Kongo has more than your average chin. Mitrione’s game is predicated on him being able to hit you harder than you can hit him. It’s not a bad game plan in heavyweight MMA, which isn’t exactly refined on a lot of levels. However, it won’t work against Kongo. I’ll take the more refined striker -- though not by much -- to win.

Rob King: This is a step up fight for Mitrione. Kongo is by no means a great heavyweight fighter, but he is a step up from Joey Beltran, Tim Hague and Christian Morecraft. If this fight goes to the ground, it’s not going to stay there for very long. Mitrione likes to use his hands from a distance, but it might be in his best interest here to get inside of Kongo and show off his ever improving clinch work. I like Mitrione to remain unbeaten and score a stoppage in the second round.

Freddie DeFreitas: Mitrione’s evolution as a mixed-martial artists has been nothing but extraordinary. With every Octagon appearance, the former Roufusport heavyweight continues to show vast improvement in all aspects of his game as he slowly wades into deeper waters and matchups against potential top-tier competitors. Having virtually coasted through his first five professional bouts against lesser opponents, Mitrione finally squares off against a legitimate heavyweight in Kongo. Even though in the past I have been quick to level the Frenchman with harsh criticism for abandoning his striking game in favor of the less-pleasurable cage-clinch, the fact is Kongo seems to be at his best when under immense pressure. Plus, he has shown a propensity to end fights violently when under the gun, as was evident in his bouts with Christian Wellisch, Dan Evensen and, most recently, Barry. Mitrione will be the one coming forward, and that will leave openings for Kongo, but I believe Mitrione’s chin will pass the test and help carry him to a decision win in a wildly entertaining bout.

Heavyweights
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson

Tony Loiseleur: It’s hard to side with Cro Cop against any relevant heavyweight these days. Though he could conceivably outlast Nelson if he consistently attacked him and wore him down over three rounds for the decision, this is, of course, Cro Cop we’re talking about here. Rather, I expect him to be conservative, backing up and throwing counter punches and high kicks in the hopes of getting that one knockout shot. He also might gas Nelson by forcing him to give chase -- at which point he may be able to be more aggressive in the final moments -- but I still think Nelson’s chances are better at being the more aggressive fighter and getting the eventual decision victory.

Todd Martin: Sadly, neither of these guys inspires a lot of confidence of late. Nelson’s chin will be better and Cro Cop isn’t a big pressure fighter, which should allow Nelson to keep the pace he wants. That makes Nelson the pick, even taking into account Cro Cop’s takedown defense.

Sariahmed: No bells and whistles to this fight for me. I don’t buy Cro Cop as a fighter. He’s sold the UFC into giving him more fights, and good for him. I genuinely mean that. However, Nelson is not Barry or Anthony Perosh. If nothing else, he is a competent heavyweight fighter, which is enough to beat a 37-year-old Filipovic.

Bantamweights
Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran

Marciniak: Honestly, I was quite surprised to hear that Curran found his way into the UFC. While he may still be competitive against the lower reaches of the bantamweight division, his 1-4 WEC track record -- mostly against top guys -- speaks for itself. Jorgensen has the wrestling to keep it standing and the power to hurt Curran with strikes. I think he sends Curran home with the first TKO in 10 years against “The Big Frog.”

Knapp: Moving down to bantamweight, Curran will find himself at a speed and overall skill disadvantage in this one. I expect Jorgensen to score to greater effect on the feet and with takedowns en route to a clear-cut unanimous decision.

Breen: Curran was given choice of opponents for his return, and he opted for Jorgensen. Am I missing something? Seems like another Curran-under-the-Zuffa-banner performance. Jorgensen wins by boxing, wrestling and top position, 30-27.

Martin: Curran’s submissions are always dangerous, but I don’t think he’ll be able to outwrestle Jorgensen and his body has a lot of mileage on it. I see Jorgensen keeping the fight standing and punishing Curran with strikes for a TKO victory.

Featherweights
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

Critchfield: Hioki is one of the more intriguing featherweight fighters to join the UFC and, with a win, could potentially be on the fast track to a meeting with 145-pound champion Jose Aldo. Roop, with his reach and finishing ability on the feet, makes for an interesting first challenge in the Octagon. Hioki won’t want to stand with him for too long or he will risk a potential knockout loss, as Roop has proven capable of delivering in wins over Chan Sung Jung and Josh Grispi. Hioki will do best fighting at close range, forcing a clinch and eventually taking the bout to the mat. From there, he’ll be able to use his skills on the ground to submit Roop by the second or third round.

Sariahmed: I’m more worried about this bout than I should be. Hioki has been a markedly better fighter than George Roop. I don’t think you’ll find anyone who’ll legitimately argue otherwise, but here’s the problem: it seems like almost every fighter to come over from Japan has struggled mightily in his United States debut. I know Hioki has fought in Canada, but I still feel this transition will be different. On top of that, he has an opponent in Roop that screams spoiler to me. I’m going to hedge my bet on this one and go with Hioki by lackluster decision. People will immediately scream and yell that he stinks while still allowing for him to work up the 145-pound ladder as he adjusts.

King: Watching Roop for the first time in his UFC career and comparing him to the fighter he is today is mind-blowing. He has improved so much in such a short period of time. However, he has not improved enough to beat Hioki in this fight. Hioki’s fatal flaw is often his game plan, which could rear its head again. Roop is certainly good enough to take advantage. However, I think Hioki uses his superior ground skills to take a one-sided decision in this one.

Loiseleur: For the record, I didn’t even know that there was such a thing as a “Pride Never Die” crowd, despite what my peers have claimed. Further, anyone lumping Hioki into this legacy of Pride would be wrong anyway. In his Sengoku Raiden Championship run, he was properly billed as “The Child of Shooto,” but even that does little credit to how different and potentially great Hioki can be. Despite showing a willful and debilitating lapse in tactics early in his career, Hioki has since made up for himself by simply pumping up his skill set such that he’s almost bulletproof; now, he outstrikes good strikers, outgrapples good grapplers and has pretty decent wrestling, to boot. Also, unlike most of his countrymen, he has begun training abroad in earnest. It’s not inconceivable that he’d lose to Roop, but it would be inconceivable to see him come into this fight as careless as Jung did. Hioki should take this one pretty handily, if not spectacularly.

2011 Picking & Grinning Standings
Jordan Breen: 145-60
Tristen Critchfield: 141-64
Brian Knapp: 141-64
Tomasz Marciniak: 139-66
Todd Martin: 139-66
Freddie DeFreitas: 137-68
Guilherme Pinheiro: 136-69
Rob King: 136-69
Lutfi Sariahmed: 133-72
Tony Loiseleur: 131-74