Picking & Grinning: UFC 132 Main Card

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Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC 132 “Cruz vs. Faber 2” main card, which airs live on pay-per-view at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Saturday from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

UFC Bantamweight Championship
Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber

Jordan Breen: It goes without saying that Cruz has improved since their first encounter four years ago. However, more importantly, he can work a game that can hurt Faber here. Against a long, superior boxer in Eddie Wineland in March, it took Faber almost three full rounds to get his ground game going, and Cruz is a superior combination puncher, if not power puncher, and a drastically better wrestler. Faber is a gamer and won’t bow at any point, but it’s likely he’ll be on the end of Cruz’s spastic flurrying for 25 minutes and lose a decision to the man he’s called Eddie Munster.

Tomasz Marciniak: The strides made by Cruz since his first fight with Faber are obvious. Four years ago, Faber virtually grappled circles around him before sinking in the choke. Not only has Cruz improved his wrestling, but, more importantly, he has learned to keep his opponents at range with his jab and kicks. Cruz lacks power to tenderize Faber’s leg like Jose Aldo did, but I think we’re looking at a similar fight, where the reigning champion outstrikes Faber on the perimeter and wins a decision.

Brian Knapp: This is a difficult fight to handicap, given what we’ve seen from them in recent fights. I think Cruz has improved much more than Faber since their first match four years ago. My gut tells me he keeps Faber at bay with stiff, straight punches and kicks, along with superior lateral movement, racking up points en route to a close decision.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben

Todd Martin: I’ve been leaning towards picking Silva since this fight was made, but I just can’t do it. Silva’s just been too inactive. His chin is too questionable. The many wars have caught up with him. I think Leben will catch him with a counter and knock him out, much to the chagrin of a lively Vegas crowd.

Guilherme Pinheiro: We all know what to expect from both fighters. Silva and Leben come to fight and will probably engage in a striking war. However, Silva holds the advantage in the grappling department, and I think he should look to take this fight to ground, if possible. He has a very active game on the floor and is skilled enough to submit Leben. On top of that, Leben has a granite chin and hits very hard. I’m afraid Silva has taken too many shots on his chin and might put himself on the wrong end of a crushing knockout. He is the more technical striker and will not run away from a brawl. While a stand up war is the most dangerous option for him, we know he has more than enough power to knock out Leben. I’m really torn about this one, but, at the end of the day, I think Silva has more ways to win this fight. Give me Silva by late knockout or a decision.

Tony Loiseleur: What is post-surgery Silva going to look like? It has been almost a year and a half since we’ve seen him in the Octagon, while Leben has been quite active, settling comfortably into the role of fan-favorite brawler. I’m not sure whether the layoff will have affected Silva much, but even if it has, coming back against someone as aggressive and forward-pressing as Leben may be just enough to help quickly shake the rust off “The Axe Murderer.” Still, what makes it difficult to pick here is that both men like to wing crazy kill shots with reckless abandon, and, as both have suffered scary knockouts in the past -- Leben more recently -- I wouldn’t be surprised if either guy walked away with a knockout victory. Still, I’ll side with Silva here, if only because he’s got some sharp knees besides those bolo punches he throws; maybe he can intercept an oncoming Leben with some.

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader

Lutfi Sariahmed: Ortiz last won a bout on Oct. 10, 2006. Here are just some of the things that have happened since then: Ortiz lost his second bout to Chuck Liddell; Spain and Germany won World Cups; something named Snooki happened; there have been nine finales for “The Ultimate Fighter” reality show; the final book in the Harry Potter Series was released; and Michael Phelps won eight gold medals at the 2008 Olympics. Ortiz will lose to Ryan Bader, too.

Rob King: My how the once mighty have fallen. Matt Hamill was a horrible style matchup for Ortiz, and Bader brings a lot of similar qualities to the table. Bader has better standup than Hamill, too, and that will only add to Ortiz’s woes. Bader should land some heavy shots on the feet to slow down Ortiz and then get the fight on the ground and pound out the “Huntington Beach Bad Boy.” Anyone want to guess what Ortiz’s post-fight excuse will be?

Breen: June 28 was the 10-year anniversary of UFC 32, where Ortiz defended his UFC light heavyweight title against Elvis Sinosic. Bader just graduated high school, ready to embark on a wrestling career at Arizona State. To say it was a different world would be an understatement. Now, it’s 2011, and an injury-riddled and ineffective Ortiz is, in the best case scenario, going to get hit with powerful right hand leads for three rounds. If this is Ortiz’s swan song, it’s not going to end with a brilliant solo on his part, as Bader takes the decision in a fight that gets increasingly one-sided over the last 10 minutes as Ortiz fades.

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim

King: Can you say pick ’em fight? It goes without saying that Condit has much better standup than Kim, as he showed in his last fight with Dan Hardy. However, I think Kim has the style to neutralize Condit’s edge on the feet. Condit is vulnerable to the takedown, and Kim loves nothing more than to take people down, keep them there and grind out a less-than-entertaining decision. Condit will land some shots, but I like Kim to get the fight to the ground in at least two of the rounds to take a position-based decision.

Breen: This is one to keep an eye on. Condit’s greatly improved boxing makes him the far superior striker in each respect standing. However, Kim can and most likely will ragdoll him to the mat from the clinch and try to pass guard and attack with punches and elbows. The onus is on Condit to either work a guard so active that it convinces the judges he’s winning the bout or get back to his feet ASAP. Condit is the superior offensive fighter and has the defense to shut down Kim’s underrated top game. It’s up to Condit, however, not to play passive from the bottom, which could lead to him losing a decision, just as Kim bested Nate Diaz without much offense from the top.

Marciniak: It seems like Condit has been in this kind of fight countless times against a big, imposing welterweight set on taking down the American. Kim is likely to succeed at this task, as do most of Condit’s opponents, but the former WEC champion is a real dynamo off his back and has won rounds from that position before. With Kim’s subpar gas tank, I think he might steal round one, but as the Korean gets more tired, I expect Condit to be more effective on offense, shrug off more of his shots and score in the standup. I like Condit by decision.

Matt Wiman vs. Dennis Siver

Marciniak: The result of this fight hinges on whether or not Wiman can get past Siver’s takedown defence. I still don’t regard the German as a destroyer on the feet, and if Wiman can make it scrappy, he might be successful; however, the easiest way to victory should be putting Siver on the mat. Experience has taught me to be highly skeptical of Europeans’ wrestling, so I’ll say that Wiman gets it done by decision.

Knapp: I get the feeling Wiman is being grossly overlooked in this fight, and I’m not sure why after walloping Cole Miller so thoroughly his last time out. Siver is the more polished and seasoned standup fighter of the two, but he will likely have difficulty keeping the sneaky quick Wiman at a distance, as he has proven both relentless and resilient. I favor Siver slightly, only because of his power and experience, but he may have a tougher time than some think with Wiman. Siver takes a split decision.

Martin: This is a tough stylistic matchup for Wiman. Siver has shown tremendous takedown defense recently, and Wiman will have trouble defeating the German kickboxer standing. Siver will work his way through Wiman’s length and reach and take over the standup as the fight progresses.