Opinion: Betting Men, Stay Away From the UFC 133 Favorite
Jason Probst Jul 18, 2011
Who
will win: Rashad Evans or Tito Ortiz? Tell us below.
As a late substitution against Rashad Evans, former light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz opened up as a +300 underdog for their Aug. 6 rematch at UFC 133 in Philadelphia, according to noted MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa; Evans is a -400 favorite.
Betting lines are designed with one ultimate end goal: to get a “balanced book,” whereby the house profits from either result. This is a mix of what they think the public will put its money on, as well as conventional wisdom, and it is not an exact science. If you played every underdog on UFC cards, you would go broke a lot slower than betting all favorites, and Ortiz’s first matchup with Evans, a draw at UFC 73 four years ago, hardly suggests he is primed to be blown out here. I would not be surprised to see this line tighten considerably, especially as sentiment for Ortiz -- and dollars -- come into play as the fight approaches.
Evans’ standup definitely gives him an edge in that department, and he has become of the best game planners in the sport. Still, Ortiz’s wrestling in their first encounter gave Evans fits. This is one betting line where I would not touch the favorite, as 4-to-1 is a lot to give away.
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